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topicnews · September 27, 2024

That’s what Harris and Trump polls say in Michigan and other swing states

That’s what Harris and Trump polls say in Michigan and other swing states

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With less than six weeks to go before the Nov. 5 general election, poll data suggests Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow lead over Republican former President Donald Trump in Michigan and several other key swing states, as well as nationally.

However, it is still close enough that the race should be considered a virtual duel.

Since the Sept. 10 debate between the two in Philadelphia, which pundits and voters said Harris won, her support has improved slightly nationally and in some key states, including Michigan, based on average results compiled by websites that track and aggregate poll data, including FiveThirtyEight.com, RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com.

Just this week, the Free Press released an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll in Michigan that showed Harris with a 48% to 45% lead over Trump, a lead of 3 percentage points that is within the poll of plus or minus The error margin is 4.4 points.

In the national polling average, Harris is ahead by 2 to 3 percentage points, suggesting she is the narrow favorite to win the popular vote. Ultimately, however, the election will come down to six or seven states that go one way or the other and could tip the scales in the Electoral College that decides the actual outcome.

This explains the respective campaigns’ continued interest in overwhelming Michigan with ads and visits. On Wednesday, Trump’s vice presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, failed in Traverse City, and Trump had several events planned for Friday in western Michigan and Warren. Last week, Harris hosted a livestreamed event with Oprah Winfrey in Farmington Hills, and on Saturday her vice president, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was scheduled to attend the University of Michigan-University of Minnesota football game in Ann Arbor.

Here are the polling averages in Michigan, according to these websites, as of midday Thursday (and note that the percentage spread sometimes doesn’t match the poll numbers due to rounding done by these websites):

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48.5% (+2.6), Trump 46%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 49.1% (+1.8), Trump 47.3%.
  • 270towin.com: Harris 49.2% (+4), Trump 45.2%.

As we mentioned, these averages vary because each site (and others) has their own methodology for which surveys they aggregate over which time period. But they are a good way to determine which way voter polls are trending in a particular state or nationally (depending, of course, on how many polls have been conducted and who is conducting them).

What we’ve seen since the debate is that Harris has gained some support nationally, as well as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If she held her lead in those states as well as Wisconsin and Nevada and won them in November – even if she lost in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina – that would be enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes, which are required for the election as president. Otherwise it remains the same as in 2020.

On the other hand, if Trump were to win in the swing states where he is currently leading and win either Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin alone (Nevada alone would not be enough), he would win. So, as I said, it remains very tight.

Here’s what the polling averages looked like in all of these other states on Thursday, as well as the number of votes each has and how each voted four years ago:

Pennsylvania (19 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50%-48.8% +1.2)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48.3% (+1.2), Trump 47%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+0.8), Trump 47.5%.
  • 270towin.com: Harris 48.5% (+1.2), Trump 47.3%.

Wisconsin (10 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.6%-48.9% +0.7)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48.8% (+2.1), Trump 46.6%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 49% (+0.7), Trump 48.3%.
  • 270towin.com: Harris 49.4% (+2.1), Trump 47.3%.

Arizona (11 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.4%-49.1% +0.3)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.9), Harris 47%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.8% (+1.6), Harris 47.2%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 48.6% (+1.2), Harris 47.4%.

Nevada (6 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50.1%-47.7% +2.4)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.5% (+0.6), Trump 46.9%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 47.2% (+0.4), Trump 46.8%.
  • 270towin.com: Harris 47.4% (+1.2), Trump 46.2%.

North Carolina (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Trump 50%-48.7% +1.3)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 47.8% (+0.4) Harris 47.4%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.8% (+0.6), Harris 47.2%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.8), Harris 47.1%.

Georgia (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.5%-49.2% +0.3)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.2), Harris 47.2%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.9% (+2.2), Harris 46.7%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 49.3% (+1.9), Harris 47.4%.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

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