Week 5 college football matchups to watch + playoff tiers and predictions

Nebraska Last week’s loss left them injured, but not all hope is lost as the Huskers can still make the playoffs. If they win – which seems unrealistic – they would be in, but would likely be in the bubble with another loss. It would require some help from other teams, but would still be plausible. Assuming Nebraska doesn’t win the Big Ten Conference, the best circumstances would be for as many conference champions as possible to be undefeated so that every other team being considered for at-large bids would suffer as many losses as possible . With that in mind, here are this week’s key games that are most likely to impact Nebraska’s playoff chances…

#2 Georgia (3-0) @ #4 Alabama (3-0), 6:30 a.m. CDT, ABC

From the Nebraska fan’s perspective, it doesn’t matter that much who wins this game, but the ideal situation would be for one of them to go undefeated and win the SEC while the other loses multiple games. The problem with these two is that each can probably lose two games and still make the playoffs.

#20 Oklahoma State (3-1) @ #23 Kansas State (3-1), 11:30 a.m. CDT, ESPN

From a Nebraska playoff perspective, it doesn’t matter that much which of these two teams wins, but it would probably be better if Kansas State won this game and then lost to Utah, since then both teams would have at least two losses.

#15 Louisville (3-0) @ #16 Notre Dame (3-1), 2:30 CDT, Peacock

The ideal situation for Nebraska would be that the ACC only gets its conference champion into the playoffs and the Irish don’t make the playoffs. Since Louisville still has to play Miami, Boston College, Clemson and Pitt, they’ll probably lose some games, and this is the only ranked team other than USC that Notre Dame still plays, so… I’m a Cardinals fan.

#19 Illinois (4-0) @ #9 Penn State (3-0), 6:30 a.m. CDT, NBC

To get an overall bid and assume Illinois will lose more games, it would be best for Nebraska to upset the Nittany Lions since Nebraska isn’t playing Penn State. On the other hand, if you believe Nebraska has a chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, it’s more important for Illinois to take the loss since they would retain the tiebreaker against Nebraska if both finished with a conference loss.

The most important games of Nebraska’s other opponents

Colorado @UCF
Washington@ Rutgers
Maryland @ Indiana
Ohio State @Michigan
Oregon @ UCLA
Wisconsin @ USC

Placement of competitors in stages

To illustrate where each team currently stands, I have divided all teams in the Power 4 conferences into tiers with fewer than two losses. The rankings largely depend on which teams have the fewest losses, although with some exceptions. I did NOT rank the ranks based on who is most likely to make the playoffs, which is what I’ve seen other commentators do. Instead, I ranked them based on how many losses a team can still endure and still be considered a playoff contender.

Stage 1

The Tier 1 teams are currently the only ones that seem capable of losing two more games and still have a likely shot at the playoffs. I base this on three factors: 1) They are currently undefeated; 2) They were highly ranked and expected to make the playoffs since the preseason; 3) They have a strong game plan that is strong enough and respectful enough that even a two-game loss would still produce a few more impressive wins. It’s no coincidence that the four teams I listed as Tier 1 are only from the SEC and Big Ten, as those conferences have the largest selection of quality teams to back up the strength of the schedule. Georgia is a good example as they could potentially lose to Alabama on Saturday and later Tennessee or Ole Miss, but if they beat the others besides Texas, they would have three quality wins since they have already beaten Clemson. Miami appears to be a potential Tier 1 team, but they don’t yet have the strong schedule to ensure they belong in the playoffs, even if they suffer a few losses. The ACC’s perceived weakness means Miami probably can’t afford more than one loss.

Stage 2

Tier 2 teams are those that can afford to lose another game and would still likely make the playoffs. These are mostly undefeated teams, but Clemson is the lone exception as their previous loss to Georgia probably won’t hurt them much if they continue to grind through their remaining schedule.

Stage 3

Tier 3 teams are the ones that would likely make the playoffs if they won the rest of their games. In other words, you cannot afford any further losses. There are still 27 teams left in the Power 4 conferences that have already suffered a loss AND have not started the season on a high note. Nebraska is in that group. It’s highly unlikely that most will win in the end, so they’ll be removed each week as these teams falter.

Here’s what the Power 4 conferences look like when the top teams are broken down into tiers:

SEC
Stage 1
Texas
Georgia
Alabama

Stage 2
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Missouri

Stage 3
LSU
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Arkansas

Big Ten

Stage 1
Ohio State

Stage 2
Oregon
Penn State
Illinois
Rutgers
Indiana

Stage 3
Michigan
USC
Nebraska
Michigan State
Iowa
Washington
Wisconsin
Maryland

ACC
Stage 1
[none]

Stage 2
Miami
Louisville
Clemson (2-1)
duke
Pitt

Stage 3
Boston College
Syracuse
North Carolina
Cal
Virginia
Stanford
SMU

Big 12

Stage 1
[none]

Stage 2
Utah
Iowa State
UCF
BYU

Stage 3

Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Arizona
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
Colorado

Aside from the Power 4 conferences, here are the only other teams that appear to be plausible contenders for an outright playoff bid:

Pac-12
Stage 2
Washington state

Stage 3
Oregon State

Independent
Stage 2
Notre Dame (3-1)

My projected final ranking for the College Football Playoff

1. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champion)
2. 2. Georgia (12-1 SEC Champion)
3. 3. Miami (12-1 ACC champion)
4. 4. Utah (12-1 Big 12 Champion)
5. 5. Tennessee (11-1)
6. 6. Oregon (11-1)
7. 7. Ole Miss (11-1)
8. 8. Notre Dame (11-1)
9. 9. Texas (11-2 – loses SEC Championship Game)
10. 10 Penn State (11-2 – loses Big Ten championship game)
11. 11. Alabama (11-2)
12. 12. Boise State (11-1 Mountain West champion)

12. Boise State (11-1 Mountain West champion)

Teams in the bubble for at-large offers: Michigan, Clemson, Louisville, USC, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, UCF, BYU

Teams heading to fifth-highest conference wins: Washington State, UNLV, Texas State, Liberty, Memphis, Northern Illinois, Toledo

*This list will be updated every week as the season progresses. A Tier 4 will be added once the number of undefeated and one-loss teams has decreased to the point where it is necessary, and the number of two-loss teams has decreased to the point where it is manageable. For those interested in learning a little more about the politics that go on behind the scenes when the playoff committee meets to evaluate teams during the season and ultimately decide who will be invited to the 12-team playoffs: This article explains several things that will likely impact who gets in. Here This is what the forecasts looked like last week.

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