Why the stakes are high for Vance and Walz in the vice presidential debate

Senator JD Vance (R-OH) and Tim Walz (D-MN) face off in New York on Tuesday, a matchup that may draw more attention than usual in a very closely contested race.

For one thing, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris debated only once instead of the usual three times, giving voters less opportunity to see the candidates meet in person.

But Harris is also a relatively unknown candidate who ran in July and has since run a highly choreographed campaign, sparking curiosity about Walz’s performance. The 40-year-old Vance could represent the future of the MAGA movement, as the 78-year-old Trump would be term-limited even if he wins.

“Vice presidential debates generally have no consequences. “Usually you just hope they don’t say anything wrong,” said David Schultz, a politics professor at Hamline University in St. Paul, Minnesota. “But given how close this race is and the fact that a lot of voters don’t really know who Harris is or who Walz or Vance is, I think that makes this race a little more consequential.”

One final factor is that this may be the last debate of any kind before Election Day. Typically, the vice presidential debate takes place between three presidential election showdowns, but that doesn’t appear to be the case this year, as Trump has announced, leaving voters with fewer unwritten data points to draw from.

“Some people might say, ‘Trump is getting old, what if something happens to him?’ What’s Vance like? or “I don’t know much about Harris.” Let me find out if Walz says anything about who she is,” Schultz said. “In a race this close, a few thousand votes here or there could affect the outcome of the election.”

The 2020 vice presidential debate between Harris and then-Vice President Mike Pence drew an audience of more than 50 million people, according to Nielsen Media Research, a figure that may have been boosted by the pandemic lockdowns that kept people indoors.

The 2020 ratings significantly exceeded the ratings of 2016, when Pence faced Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) in front of 35 million viewers.

Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, said Walz’s job will not be to attack Vance. Rather, it will be about attacking Trump, the leader of the opposition party. Likewise, he says that Vance’s job will be to attack Harris, not Walz.

“That’s what you do in the vice presidential debate,” he said. “They are using it as an opportunity to go after the leading candidates.”

Bannon expects Vance to attack Walz aggressively, but he believes the key for Walz will not be to fight back, but rather to “hold back enough so that he doesn’t interfere with Vance saying inflammatory and stupid things.”

Both Vance and Walz got into heated arguments during their recent debates. Vance feuded with his 2022 opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), over issues such as immigration and abortion, while Walz opposed his re-election challenger, Scott Jensen, over COVID-19 lockdowns and energy policy, among other issues.

Things could get ugly this time too, even if neither candidate goes into the debate looking for a knockout blow.

John Fehery, a Republican strategist, says the key for Vance will be to portray Walz, and by extension Harris, as someone who cannot be trusted, while Walz will try to convince voters that Vance is “weird” and extreme be.

“The big problem will be that Walz is lying about Vance and Trump’s record,” he said. “Walz, like Harris, is an exceptionally good liar, and I don’t know if Vance will be up for it. And most likely the moderators will tip the scales in the direction of Walz.”

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The vice presidential debate, airing next Tuesday at 9 p.m. Eastern time on CBS, could sway just enough voters in this deadlocked presidential race to change the outcome. Or, according to Republican strategist Doug Heye, maybe not.

“The race is all about Trump vs. Harris. “The undercard simply doesn’t register voters,” Heye said. “Although that won’t stop DC people from overanalyzing it.”