Why Tuesday’s vice presidential debate may be more important than history suggests

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tim Walz and JD Vance could have a chance to reshape the political landscape in their first and only debate Tuesday.

Vice presidential candidates traditionally take on the role of political attack dog, attacking opponents so that their candidate can stand out from the political fray. That has generally become less true since former President Donald Trump upended political norms.

But Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota, gained national prominence by calling rival Republicans “weird.” Vance, the junior Republican senator from Ohio, has ripped into Vice President Kamala Harris’s immigration caucus, particularly by spreading a false story about Haitian immigrants in his home state, which Trump then cited during his own debate with Harris.

Here’s a look at past vice presidential debates — and the larger role of the office that both Walz and Vance are seeking.

What is the job of the vice president?

The vice president presides over the Senate and has the power to break ties, something Harris has done 33 times so far. Last year it exceeded the previous high, which was set since John C. Calhoun’s term as vice president from 1825 to 1832. The incumbent also ceremoniously presides over the certification of the election results in Congress, which Vice President Mike Pence himself did after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to stop the process and the transfer of power, with some chanting: “Hang Mike Pence!”

But the vice president’s main job is to be ready to take power if something happens to the president. Nine did so after the death or departure of a president – the last was Gerald Ford, who became president when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974.

The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, established the rules of succession and stated that the vice president would become president “in the event of the impeachment of the president or his death or resignation.” It also allowed the president and Congress to nominate and approve a new vice president should that office become vacant.

Vice presidential historian Joel K. Goldstein said two recent assassination attempts against Trump “increase the importance of succession.” But he added that many voters view vice presidential candidates as appendages of the candidates they selected and not necessarily as potential future presidents themselves.

“People look at someone like they’re willing to be a heartbeat away?” Goldstein said. “But it is also a question of how good a decision maker is the person who chose him.”

Palin, Bentsen and Harris took part in the memorable vice presidential debates

In 1992, Admiral James Stockdale, vice president of third-party candidate Ross Perot, wanted to be casual but seemed confused when he opened the debate by saying, “Who am I?” Why am I here?” His later answer to a question: ” “I hadn’t turned up my hearing aid” only reinforced that perception.

The No. 2 debate was highly anticipated in 2008 after Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate and saw a surge in the polls. But her showdown with then-Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is best remembered as Palin coming up to him before it began and saying, “Can I call you Joe?” That was Palin trying not to mistake her opponent.” O’Biden” and confusing Biden’s name with that of his vice president, then-Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

In 1988, vice presidential candidate and Democratic Senator from Texas, Lloyd Bentsen, fired back sharply against his opponent, Republican Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana. After Quayle compared himself to John F. Kennedy, Bentsen responded, “You’re no Jack Kennedy, Senator.” But it was one of the Democrats’ few high points in a race they lost soundly.

In 2020, Harris confronted Republican Vice President Mike Pence and, when he tried to interrupt her, declared, “I’m speaking,” a statement she has repeated this campaign. But both candidates may have been overshadowed for what feels like an eternity by a fly that settled on Pence’s hair.

Will the debate have an impact on the election campaign?

A candidate’s choice of No. 2 has historically made little difference on Election Day. This year could be different.

Historical analysis by Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, suggests that voters are not really influenced by a candidate’s vice president. Even the idea of ​​using a pick to balance a ticket — such as pairing the first major party candidate who is a woman of color with a white man in the case of Harris voting for Walz — might also be overrated.

“The evidence we have is that they really do vote for the presidential candidate,” Jones said of Americans over the decades.

An important caveat may be that given how close the current race appears to be in swing states, “it’s always possible that it plays a role at the margins,” Jones said.

One reason the Walz-Vance debate could change even more minds this year is that Harris and Trump only shared a stage once, in early September. That means Tuesday may be voters’ last chance to compare the two tickets head-to-head before Election Day.

But more likely, both Walz and Vance simply need to avoid memorable, unforced errors that can be repeated endlessly. Jones said such a race-altering faux pas was unlikely — but not impossible.

“They’re disciplined,” Jones said. “But it only takes one.”