US Vice Presidential Debate: Early Poll Analysis

The US held its only vice presidential debate on October 1, hosted by CBS. In the policy-centered debate, Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz engaged in a respectful war of words to defend their personal qualifications as well as their presidential candidates and party policies. Key topics discussed include plans for economic recovery, climate change, gun regulation and reproductive rights.

What do the polls say?
While both candidates held their own during the 90-minute debate, we wonder who Americans think did better. While both parties expected the debate to boost their campaigns, debate watchers appear divided over who won.
According to an average of CNN/SSRS YouGov/CBS News, Focaldata/Politico and JL Partners/DailyMail.com polls conducted late Tuesday, 48 percent of debate watchers thought Vance was the winner or did best, compared to 46 percent Those who were of the opinion that it was a waltz were played better. Only in the Daily Mail poll does Vance have a lead at 50%, compared to 43% for Walz.
Experts argue that the relative similarity of the poll results is not surprising since both candidates performed well and had their respective weak and strong moments.
The opinions were therefore largely expressed along party lines. For example, according to CNN/SSRS, 90 percent of Trump supporters who watched the debate believed Vance won, while 82 percent of Harris supporters believed Walz won.

Both candidates benefited from the debate
However, both Walz and Vance benefited from the debate and increased their approval among voters. The concept of net favorability rating is helpful. This is the proportion of respondents who view a candidate positively, minus the proportion who view him negatively.
Averaging the CNN/SSRS and YouGov/CBS News polls, Vance’s net popularity rating rose from -18 percentage points before the debate to just -1 point after the debate. Walz’s net favorability rating rose from +13 points to +31 points after the debate.
Vice presidential debates have also influenced the popularity of candidates in the past (insert image history popularity). Therefore, both leaders can expect relatively higher popularity in a few weeks.

Should we take survey results seriously?
A word of caution about the polls – they only take into account those who actually watched the debate – in this case more Democrats than Republicans.
Therefore, the actual support could be in Vance’s favor.
Furthermore, since the debate was very close, her increased popularity is unlikely to have a significant impact on voters’ choice – neither for herself nor for her presidential candidates.