Exit Poll Results 2024 Live Updates: No hat-trick for BJP in Haryana, Hung House in J&K, say forecasters

Exit Poll Results 2024 Live Updates: Most of the forecasts released on Saturday have given the Congress party a clear majority in Haryana and a clear majority in Jammu and Kashmir.

The agencies’ election forecasts are based on voter feedback collected after the election.

According to Dainik Bhaskar’s predictions, the Congress is likely to win 44 to 54 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly, thereby securing a clear majority. According to this survey, the BJP is expected to win 19 to 29 seats. The majority mark in Haryana is 46 seats.

Pollsters like Axis My India, C-Voter, Nielsen and Chanakya will publish their election results either independently or in association with news channels and live stream the election predictions for the Haryana and J&K assembly polls for half an hour from 6.30 pm after voting in 90 seats Haryana was finished.

The 90 seats of Jammu and Kashmir voted in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1. The results of both elections will be announced on October 8th.

Past exit polls

While the idea behind election polls is to reflect public opinion long before actual results are announced, their accuracy has often come under scrutiny in the past.

For example, at least twelve election polls predicted a landslide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. But the predictions were once again terribly wrong. The BJP-led NDA had only 293 seats when the actual results were announced. In fact, unlike in 2014 and 2019, the BJP failed to achieve a simple majority on its own.

However, in the last elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014, election predictions were close to the actual results. The election polls had predicted that the PDP would be the single largest party with 32 to 38 seats in the 87-member House of Representatives, keeping it within the magic mark of 44 seats, followed by the BJP with 27 to 33. It was predicted that the National Conference (NC) would get 8 to 14 seats and the Congress would get 4 to 10 seats. The accuracy was obvious. In the end, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15 and the Congress 12, not far behind.

In the 2024 assembly elections in J&K, the NC and the Congress are contesting elections in an alliance, while the BJP and the PDP are other big players in Jammu and Kashmir.

Haryana Assembly 2019 exit poll

In the 2019 Haryana assembly elections, exit poll results showed the BJP comfortably crossing the majority mark, with most pollsters predicting more than 60 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly for the saffron party. The polls gave the Congress party about 18 seats.

As it turned out, the election polls turned out to be inaccurate. In reality, the BJP won 40 seats, six short of the majority mark, and the Congress won 31 seats.

The Congress-led INDIA bloc won 235 seats despite polls.

BJP is aiming for a hat-trick in Haryana

The ruling BJP is hoping for a hat-trick of elections in the state while the Congress party is hoping to bounce back after a decade in opposition in Haryana.

Apart from the BJP and the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are also involved in today’s election.

The exit poll results are already generating a lot of interest before the actual results day, despite their inaccuracy in recent elections. It remains to be seen how accurately pollsters will predict the results of the elections in Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir this time.