Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA Finals matchups, predictions: Who will come out on top?

It’s not accurate to portray the WNBA Finals as a clash between the brilliant Liberty, seeking the franchise’s first title, and the formerly dynastic Minnesota Lynx, looking to hang a fifth banner.

Because it’s the Liberty who are full of prestige players and are considered strong betting favorites after dominating the league for much of the last five months. The Lynx, on the other hand, had to work their way from being afterthoughts in the preseason to becoming a clear contender.

And it’s too simplistic to describe the matchup – which the Lynx particularly controlled in 2024, three games to one, including the Commissioner’s Cup Final – as a matchup pitting the Liberty’s No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense .2 of Minnesota competes.

Because that undercuts the fifth-ranked Lynx offense, which is capable of spreading the court and passing the ball with the best of them (they led the WNBA in assists per game and 3-point shooting percentage).

It also narrowly defines the Liberty, who are prone to brutal lulls on offense (see: their six-point third quarter in Game 3 of the semifinals against the Aces) and are now capable of playing staggering defense (see: that fourth quarter). the decisive game 4).

Let’s take a closer look at the matches that will determine the course of the final:

MVPs

Rarely has a single fight been clearer and more meaningful than this: Breanna Stewart vs. Napheesa Collier.

They are both top-three MVP finishers (Collier was second, Stewart was third). They play in the same position (power forward). They share a common alma mater (Collier was a freshman on Stewart’s fourth straight UConn title team). They’re even business partners, co-founding a shiny new 3v3 league this offseason (Unrivaled).

Their roles are similar, too: all-world defensive anchors flying around to “help” and block shots, as well as Swiss Army knives on offense, closing scoring gaps from the post to the 3-point line.

Based on recent form, you’d give the 28-year-old Collier the upper hand (27.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, including games of 38 and 42 points, versus 20.0 and 8.2 for Stewart) . But the 30-year-old Stewart is a two-time Finals MVP for a reason and has no desire to pass the torch.

Edge: Straight

Point guard

Neither Sabrina Ionescu nor Courtney Williams are point guards in the traditional sense. They are natural scorers and skilled pick-and-roll players who do the majority of the ball-handling for their teams, especially in crunch time.

It’s a mismatch in terms of Q rating. Ionescu has the No. 1 pedigree, the Spike Lee daps and the CarMax commercials. Williams is on her fourth team in four years after signing with Minnesota as a free agent.

But Williams can really play. She averaged 11.1 points and 5.5 assists during the regular season and scored 24 points in Tuesday’s Game 5 semifinal against the Sun. It is also a long-armed defensive pest; Williams will likely protect Ionescu, but not the other way around.

However, Ionescu has taken her game to a new level. After averaging a career-high 18.2 points during the season, she is averaging 20.7 in the postseason. There may not be a better Guardian in the world right now.

Edge: Freedom

Shoot

The Liberty were the highest 3-point shooting team in the WNBA during the regular season, but the Lynx had a significant advantage in efficiency (38.0 percent to 34.9).

Beware of Bridget Carleton (44.4 percent), Kayla McBride (40.7) and even center Alanna Smith (39.8).

Leonie Fiebich, the rookie who recently joined the starting lineup, has emerged as the Liberty’s most reliable shooter: 13 of 22 (59.1 percent) in six playoff games after shooting 43.3 percent in the regular season.

Edge: lynx

Rebounding

Consider the offensive boards as an area the Liberty can exploit. The Lynx ranked second to last in the WNBA in defensive rebound rate (68.2 percent), while the Liberty were the league’s most effective rebounding team overall (52.5 overall rebound percentage).

Liberty center Jonquel Jones (nine rebounds per game) can dominate here.

Edge: Freedom

depth

The Liberty are the only team to bring a future Hall of Famer off the bench (Courtney Vandersloot). They also have veterans Kayla Thornton and Kennedy Burke who impact games with their defense and energy.

The Lynx will likely only go seven players deep, with Myisha Hines-Allen at forward and Natisha Hiedeman at defense.

Edge: Freedom

Coaching

Cheryl Reeve, fresh off leading Team USA to Olympic gold, is on the short list of WNBA coaching GOATs, and a fifth ring here – with a newly assembled starting five that plays beautifully connected ball – could be the deciding factor give.

We thank Sandy Brondello for motivating the Liberty through last year’s setback and playing with better chemistry this time.

Edge: lynx

Predictions

Jonathan Lehman: Freedom in 5

Bridget Reilly: Freedom in 5

Andrew Crane: Lynx in 5

Peter Botte: Freedom in 4