Divided opinions on AfD ban – DW – October 10, 2024

In the three state elections in eastern Germany in September, the Alternative for Germany became stronger than ever before. The party performed best in Thuringia and Saxony and thus in federal states where it appears particularly radical and is classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as proven to be right-wing extremist.

It doesn’t bother your voters at all. “I don’t care that parts of the AfD are considered right-wing extremist, as long as they address the right issues,” say 84 percent of AfD voters in the current ARD Germany trend. To do this, the pollsters from infratest-dimap surveyed the German representatives who were eligible to vote from October 7th to 9th, 1321.

Proposal for a ban from the Bundestag

Overall, two thirds of German citizens are of the opinion that a strong AfD endangers democracy and the rule of law in Germany. Many politicians also held this opinion. But when it comes to the question of how best to fight the AfD, opinions differ.

A few months ago, a cross-party group of MPs came together in the Bundestag to initiate banning proceedings against the AfD at the Federal Constitutional Court. But the proposal is very controversial between the groups. The FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance are completely against this. Most supporters can be found in the SPD and the Greens. If you ask citizens, a comparable picture emerges.

For almost half of German citizens (46 percent), a ban procedure would not be appropriate at the moment, and hardly fewer would support it (42 percent). A ban procedure finds majority support only in the ranks of the SPD (58:32 percent) and the Greens (69:25 percent). While the Union supporters’ approval and rejection (46:46 percent) are balanced, the BSW supporters (31:55 percent) tend to speak out against it.

Doubts about the candidate for chancellor

The election of the 21st German Bundestag takes place regularly in autumn 2025. As things stand, the Union will go into the election campaign with Friedrich Merz, the Green Party with Robert Habeck and the AfD with Alice Weidel as the top candidates, and the SPD with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The citizens don’t trust any of them to be a good chancellor.

22 percent attest to the incumbent Scholz being a good Chancellor. At the same time, the expectations of his possible challengers were similarly low or not significantly higher: One in four (26 percent) can currently imagine Friedrich Merz as a good chancellor, one in five Robert Habeck (21 percent), only one in ten Alice Weidel (11 percent). .

The mediocre assessment of the SPD Chancellor and the low expectations of a Green Chancellor Habeck continue to reflect great dissatisfaction with the government performance of the traffic light coalition. 19 percent of German citizens (+3 compared to the previous month) give the Berlin government alliance a positive rating, 79 percent are dissatisfied.

If there were a federal election next Sunday

The state of the government coalition made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP is so bad that an early election for the Bundestag cannot be ruled out. If elections were held next Sunday, the governing alliance would no longer have a majority. The FDP would not be represented in the Bundestag again.

Even if the CDU/CSU has slightly lost support on the Sunday question compared to the previous month, it currently has 31 percent (-2) in sight. The second strongest force would be the AfD with 17 percent, closely followed by the SPD with 16 percent (+1). The Greens would get 13 percent (+2).

The FDP would currently have to make do with 3 percent (-1), the lowest value for the party since February 2015. The Left would also have to rely on winning direct mandates with 3 percent (+/-0). The BSW could continue to rely on a safe entry into the Bundestag with 8 percent (+/-0).

US elections: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

For the last time before the 60th US presidential election, the pollsters from infratest-dimap asked the question in the ARD Germany trend who the Germans would prefer to see in the White House.

The majority of Germans (78 percent) are still more convinced by the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, than by the Republican former President Donald Trump (8 percent). This judgment applies to all population groups and voting milieus. An exception are the AfD voters, whose support for both candidates is roughly equal.

Trustworthy partner for Germany

The reputation of the USA in Germany is better at the end of US President Joe Biden’s term of office than at the end of the Trump era. A good half (54 percent) currently view the USA as a trustworthy partner for Germany.

France continues to enjoy a much greater reputation among Germans than the USA (82 percent). In contrast, Russia is now being confronted with deep mistrust by German citizens (8:84 percent) in both the West and the East.

On the question of the extent to which Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia, can be considered a partner of Germany, German citizens are divided (40/45 percent). At the same time, a majority of them still have difficulty seeing Israel as a trustworthy foreign policy partner (27/55 percent).

The 35 percent of German citizens who do not see the USA as a trustworthy partner for Germany were asked by the pollsters about their reasons. 23 percent said that the US would unilaterally represent its national interests in the world. 16 percent cited Donald Trump as the reason. Nine percent are of the opinion that the USA would interfere in German and European affairs. Eight percent referred to US military interventions.

Stationing of American medium-range weapons controversial

The USA and Germany plan to station new US medium-range missiles and cruise missiles in the Federal Republic from 2026, which can reach as far as Russia. How do citizens view the plan?

Opinions differ. 40 percent of Germans rate the deployment as right, 45 percent as wrong. Stationing would only be possible in western Germany. Nevertheless, there is the most criticism in East Germany at 57 percent. In West Germany, approval and rejection (44/41 percent) are roughly balanced.

A look at the party supporters shows that around half of the Union (55 percent), SPD (50 percent) and Greens (49 percent) support the stationing plans. However, the plans arouse majority opposition among the AfD (26/62 percent) and BSW (25/69 percent) supporters.