How Kari Lake went from a rising MAGA star to a likely loser

• Two years ago, Kari Lake appeared to be on the unstoppable path to becoming governor of Arizona.
• Now she is a strong underdog against Rep. Ruben Gallego in a state where Trump and Harris are tied.
• Democrats are confident they will win. And political insiders say Lake did this to himself.

When a group of Rep. Ruben Gallego’s supporters gathered at a bar in downtown Phoenix last Wednesday to watch his Senate debate with Kari Lake, the feeling of confidence in the room was palpable, if unusual for a Democratic primary campaign a historically conservative state like Arizona.

“I think he’ll get through this without a problem,” said Democratic Rep. Patty Contreras. “I don’t think she has a chance.”

That wasn’t the assessment of Contreras or most other Arizona Democrats when Lake made her political debut as a gubernatorial candidate three years ago. The combative yet charismatic Lake quickly came to be seen as the most adept defender of Trumpism alongside the former president himself. She didn’t just imitate Donald Trump, but adapted his political style to her own profile as a well-known local television host. It didn’t hurt that her opponent was then-Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who even Democrats would admit wasn’t a great campaigner. “She was fresh-faced, she was well-spoken,” Contreras said of Lake, adding that Hobbs “sometimes isn’t as articulate as we would have liked her to be.”

Lake was widely expected to win that year, and Democrats viewed her with fear. But then she lost, even if only by two thirds of a percentage point.

In recent years, she has spent most of her political energy insisting that the election was stolen from her while traveling the country as one of the MAGA movement’s biggest celebrities. The consensus emerging from interviews here, not just with Arizona political experts but even with Republicans who plan to vote for her, is that Lake has gradually dug her own political grave.

“Don’t tell me you’re upset about the last election,” said Republican David Schweikert, who represents a swing district in the Scottsdale area, adding that voters “don’t care” about the “resentment.” Lake caused and other candidates continue.

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With Sen. Kyrsten Sinema out of the picture and Lake flailing, Gallego has the opportunity to run a successful version of the campaign that Vice President Kamala Harris tried to run at the presidential level, where a lawmaker once wore progressivism on his sleeve has successfully triangulated toward the center in the face of Trumpist opposition.

A large portion of the state’s more traditional Republicans continue to feel alienated by Lake’s denigration of the late Sen. John McCain and his supporters during their 2022 campaign. This allows Gallego to court Republicans like Julie Spilsbury, a Mesa city councilwoman who supports the Democratic congressman, though she admits that he has been “pretty far to the left” over the course of his career.

“I’ve seen a willingness to moderate,” Spilsbury told a small group of reporters at a Republicans for Harris event in Mesa last week, adding that both Harris and Gallego “are big Democrats who say, ‘We want you,’ and the Republicans say, ‘Get the hell out of our party.'”

The situation is all the more remarkable because the political headwinds in Arizona – a state disproportionately affected by both inflation and the border crisis – are blowing to the right. While Trump and Harris remain in a dead heat for the state’s 11 Electoral College votes, Gallego has a poll lead over Lake that is outside the state’s margin of error.

Lake’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story. But at a news conference last week, she told reporters that she had “no confidence in the public polls” of her race, emphasizing that her own internal polls showed a close race. “These polls are designed to deprive our movement of oxygen,” Lake argued. “They’re supposed to keep donors away.”

“She has lost her credibility”

Lake remains a talented politician, which was evident at last week’s debate when she launched gentle attacks at Gallego while he occasionally stumbled over his words. But the congressman’s supporters remained relaxed throughout the event, bursting into laughter when Lake stated he wanted to put “country over party” or incorrectly used the term “UVF” for in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments.

“She was definitely a force when she ran for governor,” said Kirk Adams, a Republican who was chief of staff to former Gov. Doug Ducey and once served as speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives. But today, Adams argued, she is defined primarily by her status as a political loser. “If you asked people, ‘What do you know about Kari Lake?’ They’ll probably tell you two things: She was a news anchor for a very long time and believes the 2022 election was stolen from her.

It’s an aspect of Lake’s candidacy that angers even her supporters. Maryjane Carsten, a 71-year-old Republican retiree who lives in Oracle, said she felt like she was “voting for the best of the worst” in the Senate election.

“I like that she’s a conservative,” Carsten said as she made her way to Sen. JD Vance’s rally in Tucson on Wednesday. “But she just didn’t want to give up on this choice. She just wouldn’t give up on things. She has to do it.”

To make matters worse, Lake has an unclear stance on abortion. Like many Republicans, she has vowed not to support a statewide abortion ban, although she told reporters last week that she voted against a ballot measure to expand abortion rights in Arizona. She has also expressed conflicting views on a near-total abortion ban that almost came into force this year, saying she opposed it but later complained that it was not enforced.

“She has lost her credibility with a large portion of the electorate that could have been hers at the start of this game,” said Chuck Coughlin, a former GOP political strategist in Arizona who supports Gallego.

Of course, Trump also refused to recognize his last election and expressed conflicting views on abortion. But while a Lake win would be a surprise at this point, that simply isn’t the case for Trump. The difference between the two candidates could simply be due to the fact that the former president is, well, a former president with a mostly positive economic record.

“The Donald Trump playbook only really works for one person, and that is Donald Trump,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican political strategist in Arizona.

Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Arizona-based pollster Noble Predictive Insights, said his poll found that voters, including Republicans, simply saw Lake differently. “She has all the baggage that Trump has, but she has none of the positives, the political victories and things like that,” Noble said.

The election is just over three weeks away, and Lake is now limping toward the finish line. She trails Gallego by an average of seven percentage points in public opinion polls and constantly struggles to keep up with the Democratic congressman’s fundraising machine. Last week, Gallego’s campaign said he had raised over $50 million since entering the race, including $21.7 million since July. Lake’s campaign declined to release its latest fundraising numbers, suggesting they are paltry.

Deep-pocketed national GOP groups have also largely avoided the race, despite pouring tens of millions of dollars into more promising targets elsewhere. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, hasn’t spent a dime in Arizona this year.

“Usually these things are more competitive,” Noble said. “This Senate race should be more competitive.”