Harris vs. Trump: Unequal approaches in “swing states”

The number of those who will decide the election “could probably fit in a college football stadium, they might not even fill it.” Across the seven battleground states where the contest is tied, every ballot paper counts “, writes the New York Times.

It is clear that the race for the White House has rarely been so close, and it could end in a photo finish on November 5th. US electoral law stipulates that the candidate with the most votes does not necessarily have to win nationwide. Whoever can win over the most voters (the “Electoral College”) wins. This electoral college consists of 538 electors, who are chosen by the states. At least 270 voters are required to enter the White House.

In almost all states, the “winner takes all” rule applies: all electoral votes go to the candidate who has the majority error in that state. The US Constitution does not always require electors to vote according to the outcome of the election in their respective state. In the past, however, the electors have always voted overwhelmingly as expected.

Most US states are strongholds of either Democrats or Republicans. But because it is so tight, special attention is paid to the “swing states”. This is where Harris and Trump give each other the reins in the last weeks and days before the election. There is hardly a day on which both of them do not appear and campaign in one or the seven “swing states”.

Extreme rhetoric

The election campaign there is correspondingly ambitious – not only by Harris and Trump themselves, but also by the presidential candidates Tim Walz for the Democrats and JD Vance for the Republicans. Numerous prominent supporters are also in constant use there, such as outgoing President Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama for the Democrats and, on the other hand, the tech billionaire Elon Musk, who appeared on Trump’s page in Pennsylvania.

Trump recently intensified his extreme rhetoric again. Foreigners “with bad genes” would “invade” the country, he said. He also claimed that Haitian migrants in Ohio were stealing and eating pets. At a rally in Arizona, he said that if Harris wins, “the entire country will be turned into a migrant camp.” He could also use the US military against “the enemy from within”.

Republicans can also argue that Harris and Biden’s policies have caused a rise in inflation, which the White House is trying to downplay. Trump also repeatedly referred to the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Concern about momentum

The Democrats, in turn, emphasize Trump’s long list of legal problems, be it over the storming of the Capitol or over hush money to an ex-porn actress. They also address abortion rights: The US Supreme Court recently overturned an old landmark ruling that allowed abortions at least until the fetus was viable. This 1973 decision is known as Roe v. Wade”. The Supreme Court’s reversal cleared the way for individual states to have their own laws – since then, abortion rights have once again been the subject of bitter political debates.

But, CNN analyzed, fears have grown among Democrats that the euphoria over Harris’ entry into the race in July, her successful convention in August and her performance in the debate the following month will not translate into a decisive lead.

The close race shows “that Trump represents a departure from traditional presidential candidates, but still offers something that millions of Americans want.” Harris’ inability to differentiate himself from Biden and his policies “is a misstep that Trump will exploit leading up to Election Day.”

Harris will moderate the Republicans

The most important “swing state” is Pennsylvania, which has 19 electors and that alone could be decisive for the overall victory. There, sometimes only a few thousand votes decide who the electors win.

Helpers there, some paid by the parties and mostly volunteers, carry out tireless “field work”. Every day you maintain personal contacts, make calls and write emails to persuade people to vote. The parties have each opened over 300 offices in the “swing states” for these purposes. However, there are two different approaches, as the “NYT” analyzes – “one proven, the other undisputed in modern presidential election campaigns.”

Harris’ team deploys fleets of paid staff to turn supporters into volunteers and mobilize votes from independents and moderate Republicans.

Trump becomes an occasional voter

Trump’s campaign targets a smaller group: those who vote less often. It is expected that Republicans who voted for Trump in previous elections will support him again in large numbers.

His campaign is therefore focusing on a smaller number of casual voters who his team believes would support Trump if only they were motivated. The Republicans are relying more on well-financed but inexperienced outside groups, according to the NYT.

These include Super PACs, organizations that act as fundraising machines for election campaigns. The Republicans are supported by Turning Point Action, an organization of young conservatives, and the America PAC, which is linked to Musk. However, you have little experience.

“A door-to-door strategy that relies so heavily on the sought-after third parties has never been seen in a presidential election campaign,” according to the NYT. But that is also a financial necessity: Trump has collected far less campaign money than Harris. Musk’s group alone has millions of dollars at its disposal, but from the billionaire’s own resources.