Donald Trump’s “self-sabotage” is scaring off swing voters

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have both lost support among swing voters since early October, with the Republican losing six popularity points in the past week due to “self-sabotage,” according to data from social media monitoring firm Impact Social.

The data showed that Harris went from a -8 rating among swing voters on September 27 to -17 on October 18, while Trump rose from -10 to -23 over the same period. In conversation with Newsweek, A political scientist said both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates have become “polarizing figures” among American voters.

Trump and Harris are battling for swing voters, although polls and electoral analysis suggest the election remains closely contested. As of October 18, the poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 51 percent chance of winning, ahead of Harris at 49 percent. Separately, an average compiled by data aggregator RealClearPolitics found that leading bookmakers currently give the former president an average chance of winning at 58.5 percent, ahead of the vice president at 40.5 percent.

Impact Social’s social media study concluded that both Harris and Trump saw a decline in their popularity among swing voters since early August, although the Democrat saw a steeper decline.

Harris had an approval rating of 10 among swing voters on August 8th, down to -11 on September 3rd. Its value improved to -3 after the presidential debate against Trump in September, but fell further to -17 on October 18.

Trump, on the other hand, started with a rating of -8, which fell to a low of -27 after the debate, then improved to -10 on September 27th and fell back to -23 on October 18th. Notable according to Impact Social data shows both candidates are significantly less popular with swing voters than President Joe Biden was on October 18, 2020, when the then-Democratic presidential candidate was at -4 and Trump was at -16.

Impact Social’s sentiment analysis is based on an algorithm that reads a “statistically representative sample” of social media posts from people identified as swing voters. In 2016, Impact Social created a database of 40,000 key swing voters who met a number of key characteristics.

In its report, Impact Social said Trump has faced increasing criticism from swing voters since the 81-year-old Biden left office in July because of his age and mental abilities.

The company said: “Since Biden dropped out of the race, the focus on mental fitness has inevitably shifted to the 78-year-old former president, and independents are debating Trump’s occasional lapses in thought on the campaign trail. Of greater concern to Team Trump will be.” Sharing footage of an appearance in PA where her boss turned a political event into a music/dance festival and sang along to songs for about half an hour. This has been described by many independents as bizarre and worrying.

Impact Social attributed this “self-sabotage” by Trump to a decline in his performance among swing voters over the past week.

However, the company also said Harris alienated “black and non-black swing voters alike” by appearing to stereotype black voters “by offering policies that would ‘address’ their needs and lifestyles, such as the Liberalization of drug laws”.

In conversation with Newsweek, Dafydd Townley, who teaches American politics at the University of Portsmouth in the United Kingdom, said that unlike Biden in 2020, both Trump and Harris failed to build the kind of cross-party support that appeals to swing voters.

He said: “It is not surprising that Biden had wider appeal across the political spectrum. He had spent much of his career reaching across the aisle and working with Republicans to get bills passed.”

“Trump and Harris have become polarizing figures and both are now trying to appeal to voters who are dissatisfied with their party’s representatives. The undecided voters in the swing states will be crucial in this election, as this battleground is likely to be a narrow victory.” The number of early voters has decreased compared to the total numbers in recent years, suggesting that there are more undecided voters than in previous years.

Newsweek contacted representatives from the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris via email outside of regular office hours on Saturday seeking comment.