DraftKings Thursday Showdown, Week 1

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests aren’t based on middling projections so much as they are on impact and uniqueness. Skipping the highest-ranked plays can be a risky proposition. You’ll usually gain your advantage by identifying the best plays from the lowest-ranked players and finding clever ways to combine them with the heavyweights of the list.

This article will focus heavily on DraftKings simply because the decision-making process is more interesting due to the salary premium that comes with being a captain. FanDuel’s prices are the same for MVP and Flex spots. Typically, you need the best scorer on the roster as the MVP, so the FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article is mainly about tournament lineups and strategies. For cash lineups, go with the median predictions. For head-to-head matches, still go with the median predictions, but if two options are close, give preference to the player with the lowest roster.

Showdown game theory

With so many question marks in Week 1, it’s wise to set your expectations for tonight on Vegas. Bookmakers are predicting a close, low-scoring game similar to how the teams met in the Divisional Round (Chiefs, 17-10).

Of course, in the DFS world, we don’t care who wins or loses, or by how many points. We try to identify WHO will be responsible for those spots. And that’s much easier for the Ravens, as they have a much more compact and compact group of talented players. The bulk of their production will come from Lamar Jackson and just a few weapons compared to the wide mishmash of contributors on the Chiefs. So I’m going to be a little Baltimore-heavy tonight: less guesswork and less roster at some key positions.

I have a theory that may or may not be true: Week 1 games are more widely watched – and perhaps less critically – by the general public. In practice, that could lead to roster bloat for more well-known players. Does Patrick Mahomes II get a “boost” on the general public’s roster? Have enough people been following the Chiefs’ injury rankings to know about Justin Watson? These are things we need to consider as we look to add diversity to the team tonight.

Injury overview

Both teams are starting the season mostly healthy. The only notable absence for fantasy purposes is Chiefs receiver Hollywood Brown (shoulder), but the team has gained significant depth in the offseason.

Thoughts on the captain

1. Travis Kelce
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Isiah Pacheco
4. Derrick Henry
5. Mark Andrews

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports