Storm expected to reach Florida with Category 4 and “catastrophic” storm surge

According to the National Hurricane Center’s forecast on Wednesday evening, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast on Thursday evening with a Category 4 rating.

Meteorologists warned that the storm would trigger a “catastrophic and deadly storm surge” in large parts of Florida and the Southeast. The storm surge could be up to six meters high.

The governors of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina declared states of emergency ahead of Helene’s arrival. Tampa International Airport announced it would cease operations on Thursday.

Several counties in Florida have issued evacuation orders for people in low-lying areas. Residents in the possible storm area must prepare for up to a week without power.

“It’s a big, big storm,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at a press conference on Wednesday. “A lot of people are going to be without power … you should be prepared for that.”

Where is the storm and where is it heading?

According to the NHC warning at 5 p.m. ET, Helene – with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph – was located about 460 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and moving north at 12 mph.

Meteorologists expect the storm to intensify rapidly and reach the Florida coast with wind speeds of 210 km/h.

In addition to strong winds, the storm will threaten millions of residents along the Gulf Coast with heavy rains and possible tornadoes. Before reaching the Gulf of Mexico, Helene will bring heavy rains to parts of the western Caribbean and possibly cause mudslides and flooding in western Cuba. The system also poses the threat of flooding inland in several U.S. states.

“Significant flash flooding and urban flooding are expected in parts of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday,” the National Hurricane Center said.

The weather service warned that a life-threatening storm surge could threaten the entire Florida peninsula.

A storm surge of up to 20 feet is possible along parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

How is Florida preparing?

DeSantis expanded the state of emergency to 61 counties on Tuesday ahead of the storm. Helene is expected to make landfall near the Big Bend region of the Florida Panhandle, which was hit by Hurricane Debby earlier this season.

The declaration allows the state to implement its comprehensive emergency management plan and allows the use of resources for all logistics, rescue and evacuation operations.

“Now is the time to make an emergency plan, know your evacuation zone, and be as prepared as possible for the storm,” DeSantis said in a post on X.

Many Florida cities and counties set up special locations where residents could fill sandbags before the storm.

Evacuation zones

Authorities urged people in low-lying areas to visit a website listing evacuation zones and follow evacuation instructions. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in 14 counties, including Pinellas and Hillsborough, since midday Wednesday.

The University of Tampa, which is located in one of the zones in Hillsborough County where a mandatory evacuation has been ordered, said it is working to evacuate all residential buildings on its campus.

The Tampa Bay Times reported that many Tampa-area grocery stores sold out of water Tuesday as shoppers stocked up in anticipation of the hurricane.

Observations and warnings

Starting Wednesday, 5 p.m. ET, a Hurricane warning was valid for:

• Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida

• Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A “hurricane warning” means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. It is usually issued 36 hours before the expected arrival of tropical storm force winds.

A Hurricane warning was valid for:

• Pinar del Río Province, Cuba

• From Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A “hurricane warning” means that hurricane conditions are possible in the warning areas. It is usually issued 48 hours before the hurricane is expected to arrive.

A Tropical Storm Warning was valid for:

• Dry Tortugas

• All Florida Keys

• The west coast of Florida from Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

• West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa County-Walton County border

• Lake Okeechobee

• Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico

• Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Island of Youth

A “tropical storm warning” means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas within the next 36 hours.

A Storm surge warning was valid for:

A “storm surge warning” indicates the possibility of life-threatening flooding, for example when rising water moves inland from the coast.