How playoff-contending Mets have exceeded 2024 expectations

When David Stearns was hired as the New York Mets’ president of baseball operations in the final weeks of the team’s disastrous 2023 season, there were multiple paths he could have taken in his first year in the job.

While he opted to take the quieter route, especially by New York standards, the payoff has been immediate. The Mets are set to comfortably beat their preseason win projections and hold a 68% chance of making the playoffs with eight games to go.

Rather than focusing on who added a new pitch, or how much luck the team has had in one-run games, let’s examine the big-picture team building and scouting/development stories that have aided the team’s quick ascent.

Here’s what I’ve noticed in Stearns’ first year in New York, along with how the pre-Stearns decisions in 2023 and the team’s steps forward in 2024 could set the Mets up for a huge splash this offseason — and a potentially dominant future.

1. Stearns has a style that works — and he stuck with it even in a big market.

Following Stearns’ history in Milwaukee — and also what Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler had done in the previous winter before Stearns arrived — the Mets’ offseason strategy seemed to be built around avoiding long-term deals to players in their 30s. That meant their offseason focus was on signing younger stars or older players to short-term deals.

Last September, it seemed Yoshinobu Yamamoto would be a big priority for the Mets, but I wasn’t projecting that he’d reach the $200 million mark, much less the $325 million that he ended up getting from the Dodgers. Once the bidding hit that range, he went from a potential cornerstone of their winter to not making much sense for the Mets.

Beyond Yamamoto, the realistic adds for New York’s offseason mostly revolved around midlevel free agents in the one- or two-year-deal area. J.D. Martinez, Jordan Hicks, James Paxton and Luis Severino were some of the players I projected as the lower end of two offseason approaches. The actual outcome was pretty close to that: Martinez, Severino, Harrison Bader, Jose Iglesias and Adam Ottavino all on one-year deals and Sean Manaea on a two-year deal that he’ll likely opt out of after the season.

The results have been very similar to what we became accustomed to seeing from Stearns’ teams in Milwaukee: strong performances from a group of under-the-radar additions. Severino has been excellent, Manaea is having a career year, Iglesias has had his best season since 2013 and Bader and Ottavino have been solid.

The success of these players means that they will all likely hit the market again, looking for a raise. With a small-market club such as Milwaukee, that would leave Stearns unable to realistically afford bringing the group back, instead starting a new dive for one-year finds. In New York, he has the flexibility to bring at least some of them back — or find upgrades.

2. The farm system crested, as expected, and the impact started to show up at the big league level.

Third baseman Mark Vientos (a former top-100 prospect) was the biggest homegrown, young, arrow-up success story on this year’s big league roster. He has long had big tools and potential, but this season was the first time the 24-year-old delivered on his upside in the big leagues. His offensive contributions have played a big role in New York’s in-season turnaround.

Christian Scott also played an important role in solidifying the rotation before going down with an elbow injury in July (with news coming out this week that he’ll likely miss all of the 2025 season after surgery). He was a preseason top-100 prospect who looked like a potential No. 3 starter for stretches of this season before he got hurt.

After being acquired in last summer’s Max Scherzer trade, SS/2B/CF Luisangel Acuna (brother of Ronald) has already provided a spark down the stretch since making his debut and looks like he’ll be a solid contributor next season.

But the biggest excitement comes from the number of potential prospects who could become key members of the major league roster next season. Infielder Ronny Mauricio, a current top-100 prospect, missed the 2024 season with a torn ACL and will be returning next season, likely to spend the bulk of 2025 in the big leagues. SS/2B/CF Jett Williams, another top-100 prospect, has only played a couple dozen games this year because of injury but is finishing the season in Triple-A with a likely call-up coming in 2025. OF/1B Ryan Clifford, another top-100 prospect, should spend much of next season in Triple-A and get a big league look if he hits well. OF Drew Gilbert, yet another top-100 prospect, had a down season but should debut in 2025, as will RHP Blade Tidwell, who spent much of this season in Triple-A.

Righties Brandon Sproat (now a top-100 prospect) and Jonah Tong (not far behind) both had breakout seasons on the mound. Sproat, a longtime power arm with command limitations at Florida, took a big step forward with a slight tweak to his delivery that has helped his pitch shapes generate more whiffs while his command also has improved. Tong was a somewhat generic late-rising power high school arm in the 2023 draft who has posted big strikeout numbers since entering pro ball because of his standout fastball shape. He finished the year in Double-A and could be a big league factor in late 2025 at this rate.

3. The Mets have weathered storms via roster addition and development successes.

Plenty of things have gone wrong for the Mets this season, and being able to overcome those challenges has been one of the biggest differences between this year’s squad and those of other recent years.

Kodai Senga made one big league start this season and Brooks Raley threw seven innings before he needed elbow surgery. Mauricio missed the entire season, and Scott went down after a strong stretch. Jeff McNeil’s best days seem behind him, and Edwin Diaz had pretty awful luck on balls in play (and also out of the stadium). Brett Baty has traveled a similar path to Vientos, just without the breakout big league season. Last year’s surprise, OF DJ Stewart, reverted back to his career norms. Dedniel Nunez, Drew Smith and Sean Reid-Foley all showed flashes in relief but had extended arm trouble. Some smaller offseason gambles (Jorge Lopez, Jake Diekman, Joey Wendle, Shintaro Fujinami) flopped, though the cost was low.

Because of the successes from their free agent and trade deadline additions combined with the young players who have stepped up and some smaller steps forward from role players such as David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Danny Young, Jose Butto and Reed Garrett, the Mets have come a long way in neutralizing the difficulties presented by the grind of a season.

4. These Mets are already starting to run with the payroll efficiency Stearns was known for in Milwaukee.

Yes, the Mets have the biggest payroll in baseball — but it’s a much more manageable version than the 2023 roster that famously flopped. Along with the team’s disciplined offseason, the shedding of some of its bad contracts is the outcome of the 2023 trade deadline (while Eppler was still in charge) that sent Scherzer to Texas and Justin Verlander to Houston.

Only Verlander projects to have any real money paid to him next year as a player no longer on the team. Starting in 2025 there will be nothing else owed to (deep breath): Omar Narvaez, Adrian Houser, Fujinami, Wendle, Lopez, Tomas Nido, Joey Lucchesi, Phil Bickford, Julio Teheran, Diekman, Scherzer, James McCann, Darin Ruf and Michael Tonkin. Meanwhile, Manaea, Severino, Raley, Bader, Martinez, Ottavino, Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Jesse Winker and Smith have contracts expiring or options unlikely to be picked up.

If you add all those figures up, the Mets have just over $173 million coming off the books in expiring contracts and dead money from the $358 million CBT payroll figure, or almost exactly half the money paid this year from the biggest payroll in baseball. For context, $173 million would be the 14th-highest payroll in the sport.

5. The Mets are set up to do, well, just about anything they want this winter.

With all of the young talent headed to the big league roster next year plus so much freed up money (as a bonus, some of those young players were acquired in trades that moved some of the dead money), the Mets are in a fascinating position to make bold moves this winter, coming off an ahead-of-schedule likely 2024 playoff run.

Now, I wouldn’t just assume the payroll will stay the same as it has been, and I don’t expect the Mets to change their strategy of limiting long-term deals to older players. But we can play out some in-character decisions for Stearns and Cohen to see where potential moves would put the payroll.

The Mets have a locked-in core of Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo and Vientos, along with Senga in the rotation and Diaz in the bullpen. The supporting cast includes Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, Megill and David Peterson, along with the prospects who will either start the season in the big leagues or be ready to come up at some point in 2025.

Let’s assume in the rosiest situation the Mets bring back Alonso for $25 million per year and land the prize of the offseason in Juan Soto (and that Soto’s CBT figure is the very round number of $50 million per year). The buzz is the Soto sweepstakes will primarily be between the two New York teams, and he fits the Mets’ offseason needs almost perfectly.

Those two moves would put the 2025 payroll at roughly $255 million ($80 million less than the current payroll) with five spots left to fill and a roster that looks like this:

Lineup: C Alvarez, 1B Alonso, 2B McNeil/Mauricio/Acuna, SS Lindor, 3B Vientos, LF Nimmo, CF TBD, RF Soto, DH TBD

Bench options: Luis Torrens, Marte, Taylor, Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Ryan Clifford

Rotation options: TBD, Senga, TBD, Peterson, Megill, Paul Blackburn, Sproat, Tidwell

Bullpen: Diaz, Reed Garrett, Jose Butto, Dedniel Nunez, Reid-Foley, Danny Young, TBD

It’s also possible the current bench/prospects group takes those two open lineup spots, but I think the Mets will add some veterans on short-term deals (bringing back Bader is one possibility).

If the Mets choose to make an even bigger free agency splash, the pricey lineup option could be signing Alex Bregman (roughly $30 million AAV) at third base — pushing Vientos to a DH spot — or signing the likely-to-opt-out Cody Bellinger (roughly $25 million AAV) to play center field. Gleyber Torres also seems likely for a one-year pillow deal that would make him the type of addition who fits Stearns’ past moves, even if the infield is pretty full.

If the Mets are unable to sign Alonso, fallback options would include Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt. If they miss out on Soto, alternatives include Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O’Neill and Max Kepler.

While bringing back Severino and Manaea is one option to restock the rotation, there are a wealth of options to fill New York’s pitching needs. Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet will be the most sought after name in the trade market, though he’d probably cost a couple of key prospects and I don’t think the Mets want to do that if it isn’t necessary. Another trade target could be relief ace Devin Williams, who is entering his final year of team control and pitched for Stearns in Milwaukee.

As for free agent starters, Corbin Burnes ($30 million-plus AAV) is the top on the market (and also pitched for Stearns in Milwaukee). The next group includes Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, and the tier below that (alongside Manaea and Severino) includes Nick Pivetta, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha. Shane Bieber coming back from Tommy John surgery and Walker Buehler headline the list of intriguing veterans likely to land a short-term deal or pillow contract who could be of interest to the Mets. And, of course, if the Mets can also jump into a potential Roki Sasaki sweepstakes, landing a $200 million-plus talent for under $10 million guaranteed, that would be the cherry on top of an ideal fantasy winter for the Mets.

The most realistic combination here might be bringing back Manaea (let’s say on a three-year deal), and then picking two more additions from the potential optimization targets (Pivetta or Buehler), a buy-low short-term deal off of injury (Bieber), a proven vet on a short-term deal due to age (Eovaldi) or even waiting out the market and paying a premium AAV on a shorter deal for an ace type (Snell, at something like $40 million per on a three-year deal) if the market allows.

So, if we land on a potential offseason of Soto, Alonso, Bader, Snell, Manaea, and Bieber as the main pieces, with only Alonso getting more than three years at over 30 years old, the 2025 Mets would have a payroll almost exactly equal to this year’s team. Back of the envelope math says this hypothetical roster would give the Mets a top-five offense and a top-five pitching staff.

For a franchise that entered the homestretch of last season looking directionless, heading into the final week of 2024 with a playoff spot within reach and a dream offseason suddenly seeming attainable is an incredible outcome.