China is part of the US election

The USA and China are the two largest economies in the world. They have the two most powerful militaries in the world. The US-China rivalry will be the defining global issue of the 21st century, according to many international analysts.

But currently only one of the two major presidential candidates speaks regularly about US-China policy – as he has consistently done for years.

According to a review by BBC Verify, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has mentioned China 40 times at his five rallies since the presidential debate earlier this month. In just one hour last week at a town hall forum in Michigan, he brought up the country 27 times.

And when he talks about China, Trump focuses on tensions between the two world powers, portraying the country and the world’s second-largest economy as some kind of economic predator.

He has spoken about the new tariffs he plans to impose on imports from Chinese companies – and from other countries – if he returns to the White House.

He said he wants to prevent the sale of Chinese-made cars because he believes they would destroy the American auto industry. He has warned China against replacing the US dollar as the world reserve currency. And he has blamed the Chinese government for the Covid pandemic.

Many economists question the effectiveness of Trump’s tariff plans and warn that they will ultimately hurt U.S. consumers. But Trump’s message is aimed at blue-collar voters in key industrialized Midwestern states who are feeling the effects of increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers.

Meanwhile, BBC Verify finds that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has not mentioned China at all in her six rallies since the September 10 debate. Although she made a handful of references to the country in a speech about the economy in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday afternoon.

“I will never hesitate to take swift and strong action when China undermines traffic rules at the expense of our workers, communities and businesses,” she said at the event.

Asked for comment, an aide to the vice president told the BBC that while Harris does not regularly speak about China, she has a track record of working to counter China’s efforts to undermine global stability and prosperity.

But when it comes to discussing China, the contrast between Trump and Harris on the campaign trail is unmistakable.

On Monday afternoon, Trump met with a group of local farmers and ranchers at a barn in Smithton, a small town in rural western Pennsylvania, for a panel specifically about China.

The city is just an hour outside of Pittsburgh, an urban Democratic Party stronghold, but it was clearly Republican territory. Cows grazed peacefully on grassy areas lined with dozens of “Trump for President” signs, while Trump supporters adorned two donkeys in “Make America Great Again” gear.

The theme of the event, hosted by the Protecting America Initiative, a conservative think tank, was “the Chinese Communist Party’s growing threat to U.S. food supplies.”

In the end, the forum was a more open discussion about the Chinese threat, period. Farmers, ranchers and business leaders on the panel complained about competition from heavily subsidized Chinese imports and the low quality of Chinese goods.

While the former president didn’t spend much time discussing the perceived dangers of Chinese ownership of U.S. farmland – instead promising that he would persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to buy more U.S. agricultural exports – he reiterated that he would use tariffs to shield the American economy from China.

At one point he spoke of the need to protect the US steel industry – to prepare for a hypothetical war with China.

“If we’re in a war and we need army tanks and we need ships and we need other things that happen to be made of steel, what are we supposed to do? “Go to China and get the steel?” he asked. “We’re fighting China, but would you mind selling us some steel?”

Some of the larger engagement with China during the forum was left to Richard Grenell, a roundtable panelist and senior adviser to the Protecting America Initiative.

He warned that the country had acted “quietly but strategically” against the US – especially when Americans were distracted by other global problems.

“They persecute our local and state politicians; They follow our production,” he said. “There is no question that at some point they will seek to capitalize on these investments and activities.”

Grenell, who served as U.S. ambassador to Germany and acting director of national intelligence during Trump’s term, is seen as a possible secretary of state – America’s top diplomat – if Trump wins another term in November.

If Harris wins, on the other hand, there may be no significant change from the current Biden administration, even though the current president has often used harsher rhetoric to describe the U.S.-China rivalry.

More about the US election

Since the start of his presidency, Joe Biden has identified China as one of the autocracies competing with the world’s leading democracies at what he calls a historic global turning point.

Opinion polls show that China ranks low on the list of issues that matter to American voters, surpassed by the economy, immigration and health care.

In a recent National Security Action poll of voters in key election states, only 14% listed China as a top national security priority for the next president. Immigration comes first at 38%, followed by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza at 28% each.

That could partly explain Harris’ apparent lack of interest in talking about China as she has sought to define herself in the eyes of voters during a truncated presidential campaign, as well as Trump’s attempts to tie his China policy, particularly tariffs, to an economic one aspect.

After the Trump event in Smithton, Bill Bretz, chairman of the county Republican Party’s local committee, said that while China is not at the top of voters’ concerns in Pennsylvania, it is important for Trump to talk about it.

Pennsylvania is the biggest electoral prize up for grabs and potentially the deciding state in the 2024 presidential election. Both Trump and Harris will have a hard time winning the White House if they are not in their column. Surveys there currently show a dead heat between the two candidates.

“The majority of people have already decided on the camp they are in, but there is also a group of people who are undecided,” he said. “If China is a straw that will tip the balance one way or the other, I think it’s a great thing to bring that up.”

Additional reporting by Jake Horton and BBC Verify

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher breaks down the race for the White House in his weekly newsletter, US Election Unspun. Readers in the UK can sign up here. People outside the UK can register here.