Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in two key swing states, shocking new polls show

A shocking new poll finds Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in two key swing states that will decide the race for the White House.

With just seven weeks until Election Day, Harris leads Trump by one point in Michigan, 48 percent to 47 percent, and by two points in Wisconsin, 49 percent to 47 percent, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

The poll shows a slight decline in support for Harris as her momentum to replace President Biden as the Democratic nominee appears to have waned.

In particular, the vice president’s perceived economic weakness compared to Trump has been cited as a driving factor in her decline and could have a negative impact on campaigns that lean Democratic but support Trump.

Trump is perceived by voters as stronger than Harris on economic issues, but is losing support on the politically sensitive issue of abortion

Notably, the poll found that Harris and Trump’s support levels are within the margin of error, putting them essentially tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, which together receive 25 Electoral College votes.

Wisconsin has been decided by less than a point in four of the last six elections, while Joe Biden won Michigan by just three points in 2020.

The two states are among the few states that will decide the election, with Harris consistently leading in national polls but disadvantaged by the Electoral College.

Although Ohio is not considered a battleground state, the poll also focused on voters in that state to show how the presidential race impacts the election, as it hosts one of the most competitive Senate battles in November.

It turned out that incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has a four-point lead over his Republican opponent Bernie Moreno, although Harris lost to Trump by six points.

The result highlights a troubling divide between voters willing to support Democratic candidates but who did not choose Harris in the presidential race.

Wisconsin voter Antonio Dawkins, 40, told the New York Times that he was among those who wanted to vote in the state election but was unconvinced about the presidential election, saying he might support the presidential line will leave empty.

“She’s trying to tell everyone that she’s not Trump, and that’s not enough,” Dawkins said.

“She says a lot of things that sound good, without details. So I guess that’s what they call it – there’s no meat and no potatoes.”

When asked about the candidates’ political programs, voters responded by five points (46 to 41) to Trump, whose policies would be more likely to help them personally.

When asked which candidate they would trust more to “help people like you,” voters gave Harris a slight edge, suggesting a gap between the candidates’ perceived personalities and their programs.

In Wisconsin, 55 percent of “undecided” voters cited Trump’s behavior, temperament and honesty in office as their top concerns about potentially supporting the former president, and in Michigan that number was 47 percent.

Voters also said the economy was the most important issue for them before the election, while abortion came second – an issue seen as politically vulnerable for Trump.

Harris, seen on a visit to the southern border this week, was viewed by voters in the poll as more trustworthy on the economy but lost support when it came to specific policies

With seven weeks to go before the election, abortion appears to be increasingly on the minds of Americans. 18 percent said this was their main reason for voting, compared to 13 percent when the same pollster asked in May.

On the issue of abortion, voters in Michigan supported Harris over Mr. Trump by 20 points and in Wisconsin by 13 points.

As poll after poll shows the presidential race shaping up to be a tight one, forecasters warn that there’s a chance a single congressional district in Nebraska could tip the balance.

In an unlikely but statistically possible scenario, Harris and Trump could both struggle to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, and Nebraska’s slightly different system of allocating votes could make the crucial difference.

Nebraska is one of only two states, along with Maine, that apportion electoral votes by congressional district, while all others have a winner-take-all system.

Under Nebraska’s current system, Donald Trump is almost certain to win four of the state’s five electoral votes, while Democratic-leaning Omaha County could offer Kamala Harris a single electoral vote.

A majority of undecided voters in Wisconsin cited Trump’s demeanor, temperament and honesty in office as their top concerns about potentially supporting the former president

In the New York Times-Siena College poll, Harris had a strong 9 percent lead in the district, while Trump is expected to easily lead the statewide race.

The same result occurred in the 2020 election, where Joe Biden received one vote in the Electoral College despite losing the state by more than 19 points.

For a presidential candidate to win the presidency through the Electoral College, he or she must receive at least 270 votes.

If neither party does so, the fate of the nation rests in the hands of the House of Representatives, which awards votes based on the support of individual state delegations rather than the total number of members of Congress voting.

This would almost certainly give Trump a second term in the White House because Republicans control more delegations in the House.

Omaha’s stellar Electoral College vote could take on national significance if Harris wins the Blue Wall — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — but loses the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

In this case, the one Electoral College vote would be the difference between a 269-269 tie and a 270-268 Harris victory.