Another tropical threat is possible through the Gulf next week

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – The Atlantic hurricane season may have produced fewer storms than expected so far, considering preseason forecasts warned of one of the most active seasons on record, but the storms that have developed have been extremely devastating.

Of the nine named storms that formed by September 27th, four have reached the US Gulf Coast as hurricanes, including Category 4 Hurricane Helene. Helene is also one of the nine major hurricanes that have struck the Gulf Coast since 2017 land, with seven of the nine hurricanes making landfall at Category 4 or 5 intensity.

Apart from that, the Atlantic basin is currently busier than it has been all season. While the latest Helene advisory was written, we were tracking Hurricane Isaac, Tropical Storm Joyce and two other features in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Isaac

Isaac became the sixth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on Friday. The good news is that intensity is likely near its peak Friday evening and will gradually weaken over the open Atlantic over the course of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Joyce

Tropical Storm Joyce is also over the open Atlantic and is also likely nearing its peak. Further strengthening is possible into Saturday and it is not ruled out that it will briefly become a hurricane, but conditions are expected to become more adverse in the coming days and Joyce is likely to weaken over the open Atlantic.

East Atlantic wave

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave east of Joyce that is forecast to have a 40% chance of development Friday evening. Regardless of development or not, this system is expected to persist over the open Atlantic.

A new threat from the Gulf

NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. While conditions for development are expected to remain generally unfavorable over the next few days, this could change next week. Various models suggest the possibility of another storm in the Gulf by mid- to late next week, but confidence that it will happen is currently low. Stay calm over the weekend, but be aware that another storm could potentially move into the Gulf early next week. It is far too early to speculate about the possible intensity or course.

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