Israel launches ground offensive in Lebanon

The war in the Middle East threatens to finally escalate. Just a few days after Israel gradually decimated the Lebanese Hezbollah with heavy air strikes and killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran is now also intervening in the war. On Tuesday evening, Tehran fired several ballistic missiles at Israel. According to Israeli media reports, there were around 180 projectiles. Pictures on social networks show a real rain of fire in the sky over Israel.

Sirens wailed across the country shortly before 8 p.m. The population was killed and immediately sought safety in bunkers. American sources had already warned of an impending Iranian attack during the afternoon. Washington had assured Israel of its support. A direct attack would have serious consequences, a US official said.

According to initial reports from Israeli media, no Israelis were killed in the Iranian wave of attacks. However, there were several injuries. It is initially unclear which targets the missiles were aimed at. According to several reports, a larger part of the bullet was intercepted. The USA and Jordan also took part in repelling the attack. Tehran, on the other hand, reported that 80 percent of the projectiles had reached their targets.

Tuesday evening’s attack is believed to have been in retaliation for the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s massive campaign against Hezbollah. Iran may also be avenging the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, who fell victim to an Israeli attack in Tehran two months ago. There had long been speculation about how Iran would respond to Israel’s hammer blows against Hezbollah. So far, Tehran has held back and sent mixed signals. Now, however, the hardliners in the regime seem to have prevailed – and the signs point to war.

The signs point to war

An Israeli military spokesman said on Tuesday evening that the attack would have consequences. Meanwhile, Iran’s UN mission wrote that the shelling was a legal, rational and legitimate response. If Israel now responds, an even harsher reaction would follow.

Shortly before the Iranian air strike, Tel Aviv was also shaken by a terrorist attack. According to police reports, two attackers killed at least seven people and injured eleven others. The attackers who attacked passengers on a tram with an assault rifle and a knife were shot, the police said.

Recently, the war in the Middle East, which began with Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has escalated at breakneck speed. After Israel’s successful war last week to severely decimate Hezbollah – a key Iranian ally – through air strikes, Israel’s army also attacked the Shiite militia on the ground on Tuesday.

The army announced in the early hours of the morning that it had launched a “targeted and limited” ground offensive in southern Lebanon. The focus of the maneuver is on Hezbollah positions in several Lebanese villages along the border, which posed an immediate threat to Russian cities.

Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari claimed on Tuesday that Hezbollah was preparing to carry out an invasion like the one carried out by Hamas on October 7 in Lebanese villages along the border.

By Monday evening there were already increasing signs of a ground offensive. The Israeli military declared several areas along the border to be restricted military zones, including the communities of Metula, Misgav Am and Kfar Giladi. There were later few reports that the Lebanese army had withdrawn from the immediate border area.

A limited ground offensive?

It is still unclear how “limited” this ground offensive actually is. On Tuesday morning, Israel called on residents of around a dozen villages and towns across southern Lebanon to immediately leave their homes and seek safety across the Awali River. This is more than fifty kilometers from the border.

At the same time, there are many indications that there will initially be no large-scale ground operation, as was the case in 2006. Israel recently deployed additional units near the border and mobilized individual reserve brigades. Nevertheless, the number of troops is relatively limited – for a major invasion of southern Lebanon, Israel would probably have to mobilize thousands more soldiers, although there are currently no signs of this.

On Tuesday it also became known that this was probably not the first time that Israeli troops had advanced into Lebanese territory. As an army spokesman said, special forces had carried out dozens of attacks on Hezbollah positions and tunnels in recent months, partially destroying them and also capturing weapons and ammunition.

What will Israel aim to do?

But the question arises as to whether Israel can and wants to achieve this with its current initiatives. On Tuesday, an Israeli security official told reporters that the primary goal was to destroy Hezbollah positions along the border. “It is not an option to invade Beirut.” The Russian troops would operate within walking distance of the border.

A longer occupation of the area is not planned: “What is currently happening is not a major operation that is intended to be long-term – we are talking about limited attacks in certain regions.” The attacks are limited in time and the troops deployed so far can only be used carry out smaller military actions. “This cannot be compared to the operations we saw in Gaza.”

But Hezbollah not only has positions and an extensive network of tunnels in the immediate border area, but also in practically the entire southern Lebanon. Even if it were pushed back a few kilometers, it could continue its shelling of Israel. On Monday, Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Kassem announced: “The resistance forces are ready for a ground fight.”

Washington stands behind Israel

Meanwhile, the United States, Israel’s most important ally, has thrown its support behind Israel, albeit hesitantly. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a phone call with his Jewish counterpart Yoav Gallant: “We agree on the need to remove infrastructure along the border so that Hezbollah cannot carry out attacks on Israel’s northern communities.” Israel has the right to defend yourself.

At the same time, the USA is warning of an expansion of the offensive and a resulting long war against the Shiite militia – ultimately a diplomatic solution will be needed to enable the return of residents on both sides of the border. However, as a result of the Iranian attack, it appears to be becoming further away than ever. Quite the opposite: the war in the Middle East is threatening to expand – and in the worst case scenario could also involve the USA.