All swing states in 2024 and why they are so important in this election

The weight of these votes means that victory in a close swing state can have a disproportionate impact on the outcome – making them crucial to securing the presidency.

As Hillary Clinton discovered in 2016, winning more votes than the other candidate does not mean she will win the election. In some states, voters’ location is as important as their choice of candidate.

Which states have become democratic?

Mr Biden’s 2020 victory in Arizona surprised some observers, as the state had voted for Democrats only once since 1976.

The state had voted for Mr. Trump in the 2016 election and has consistently voted for the Republican candidate in elections he did not win nationally, including in 2008 and 2012.

Georgia, a staunchly Republican state between 1996 and 2016, decided in 2020 to give Mr. Biden a chance, handing him a knife-edge victory that Mr. Trump sought to overturn. This incident is now the subject of a federal lawsuit against Mr. Trump and his team.

In both states, Mr Biden’s support currently looks shaky – and could spell trouble for him in 2024.

Which states need Republicans?

Republicans must reclaim their former heartland from Mr. Biden and try to win over traditionally Democratic states if their candidate has a chance of winning the 2024 election.

There are already positive signs for the party in Florida – a state that was once considered one of the closest races but has since become more Republican-leaning. Ron DeSantis, the second-place GOP primary candidate, is the state’s governor.

In North Carolina, Mr. Trump narrowly won in 2020 and his campaign wants to extend that lead in 2024 if he is elected as the Republican nominee.

Victory for Pennsylvania, which has voted Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992, would be a major coup for Republicans in 2024. Not only has the state been a focus of the Biden administration’s “Bidenomics” policy, it is also home to the city of Scranton, the president’s birthplace.

Pennsylvania’s voting history is mirrored in Michigan, where Republicans have been elected in just one election since 1992. The state is the heart of America’s auto industry and is home to hundreds of thousands of workers who were targeted by both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in their early campaigns.

Can Harris win the swing states?

Political scientists said they are predicting a close election, similar to the outcome of most elections this century.

“We haven’t seen a rapid re-election landslide like Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon or Lyndon Johnson since 2000,” Christopher Galdieri, a politics professor at Saint Anselm College, told The Telegraph.

He said that while Ms. Harris would not be impressed by “Biden’s age” and other negative connotations, she may not be able to win over the same coalition of voters in swing states in the industrial Midwest.

“As a black woman, she is unlikely to appeal to white, working-class voters who saw Biden as culturally on par with themselves,” Galdieri said.

“I don’t think she can’t win there, but I think if she wins there it will be with a coalition that looks a little bit different than the one Biden won with in 2020,” he said.