Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy are the NFL’s most profitable duo on extra rest: NFL Week 5 stats and trends

Welcome back to the statistics lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I blog about the stats I used that week at Barstool Sports Advisors, as well as a few others I found in my research for each game we covered. As I go through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a particular division (not their own)? It’s probably not that important. Teams are constantly changing, and there is nothing to suggest that the same teams in a division are playing a certain way or that way. But a coach who is doing really well during the bye week? That says something. A team that covers a lot as a street dog? This probably means they are constantly undervalued. League-wide trends that persist across hundreds of matchups for years? This is gold. So you have to look at each statistic individually and decide whether it is important.

Below is my entire consultant cheat sheet that I used this week. Lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from time of compilation (Wednesday morning).

LW: 3-2

PERFORMANCE OF THE YEAR: 13-7

New York Jets (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-0, 4-0 ATS)

9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (London)

MIN -2.5

T 40.5

Aaron Rodgers has always weathered a loss well in his career, going 44-25 ATS (64%). And he’s been even better lately, going 16-4 ATS in his last 20 games with a loss. Look for the Jets to bounce back and hand the Vikings their first loss.

The statistics say: Jets

Baltimore Ravens (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3, 2-2 ATS)

1 p.m. on CBS

BAL -2.5

T 50.5

Joe Burrow is always a good choice when it comes to scoring, he’s an 18-9 ATS underdog in his career. And that total is simply too high for an AFC North match. In AFC North battles with a total score of 48 or higher, the underdog is 13-4.

The statistics say: Bengals and Under

Buffalo Bills (3-1, 2-2 ATS) @ Houston Texans (3-1, 0-3-1 ATS)

1 p.m. on CBS

BUF-1

T 47.5

It should be a close game and the stats show that favoring the Bills. Josh Allen is 14-6 ATS in games with a spread less than 3 points. And CJ Stroud has an ATS of 3-10 when either the favorite or the slight underdog (less than 2 points).

The statistics say: Bills

Green Bay Packers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-3, 1-3 ATS)

4:25 p.m. on CBS

GB-3

T48

There are some good signs of this here. The over is 8-3 when Sean McVay is an underdog at home, and the over is 11-3 in the Packers’ last 14 road games. Shooting is the focus here.

The statistics say: Over

Dallas Cowboys (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, 3-1 ATS)

8:20 p.m. on NBC

PIT -2.5

T43

The Cowboys are coming off a Thursday Night Football game, which is great news for them because Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy are an incredible duo with extra rest. Over the last 20 years, Dak has been the league’s most profitable QB with extra rest (18-4 ATS) and Mike McCarthy has been the league’s most profitable head coach with extra rest (35-19-3 ATS).

The statistics say: Cowboys

If you missed this week’s Advisors, be sure to check back here to find out all your winners before launch.