Fantasy Football Week 5 Recap: Are You Buying or Selling Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson?

This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following Week 5 games (usually looking ahead and “What does this mean?”). It has a variety of systems, many of which are covered here Primer article and discussed in more detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The advanced metrics outside of the unique KC metrics refer to TruMedia/PFF or Stathead unless otherwise noted. Fantasy scores apply in PPR environments. Roster percentages are for ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise stated, the statistical rankings are valid until the end of the games on Sunday evening.

Is it time to worry about Breece Hall? Or is this a good buying opportunity?

Hall gave fantasy managers plenty to celebrate in Weeks 1-3. He scored 18 or more points in every game and ranked fifth in running back scoring during that period.

This has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. Hall is averaging 5.3 PPG over the past two weeks, a pace that ranks 52nd among running backs over that span.

The main reason for the exit is a series of brutal matchups against Denver and Minnesota. The Broncos and Vikings rank ninth and first, respectively, in PPG allowed to opposing running backs on rushing plays this year. That scheduling luck is about to change a bit, as New York faces Buffalo (20th in RB PPG allowed) and Pittsburgh (ranked fifth) in the next two weeks. Things get much better after that, as there are five green-rated rush defense matches on the schedule in weeks 10 to 16.

This generosity of time makes Hall a fantastic low-buy candidate if he’s not on your list and you can put together a reasonable trade offer. If he is on your team, resist all trade offers and be patient because the highest scoring days will soon return.

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Is it time to trade Bijan Robinson?

Fantasy managers didn’t draft Robinson early in the first round of fantasy drafts to go 22nd in RB points after Week 5.

So what’s the problem? It’s not a volume of work. Robinson has played 86 plays from scrimmage this year, which ranks him 13th at the position. Some of that is touchdowns, with Robinson only reaching the end zone once this year, but it’s hard not to like the benefits of an Atlanta offense that just scored 30 points against a solid Tampa Bay defense.

This upward trend could continue given the Falcons’ favorable rush defense schedule. Atlanta faces Carolina, Seattle and Dallas in three of the next four weeks, and those defenses rank 32nd, 23rd and 26th in RB-PPG allowed on rushing plays, respectively.

This is another case where fantasy managers should stay the course and not throw in the towel on Robinson as 20-plus point games may be coming up. And like Hall, this could be an opportune time to make Robinson a trade offer.

Is Caleb Williams a must-start or trade top candidate?

Chicago built what appeared to be a strong passing offense around Williams, but he only scored 14.58 total points through the first two weeks of the season. Since then, his career has taken a turn for the better. Williams ranks 10th in pass PPG at a pace of 15.6 points in Weeks 3-5. He only posted 1.8 rush PPG (16th in that category), but he ran the ball five times in four different games. Williams is one of only eight quarterbacks to achieve this this season.

Now let’s look at how this newfound level of production might evolve. We’ll start by noting that Chicago has four green-rated rush defense matches and no yellow-rated rush defense matches in Weeks 5-11. This factor will lead to the Bears relying on the ground game in most of these contests.

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The rush defense trend changes dramatically in Weeks 11-16, with five straight rush defenses rated red. It may be the league’s most brutal rush defense plan at the end of the season, and it will force the Bears to rely on Williams’ passing skills during the fantasy football stretch and playoffs.

That’s not the only scheduling factor in Williams’ favor. I have a metric called Shootout Points that measures the probability of a team being involved in a scoreboard shootout (defined as both teams scoring 24 or more points in a match). From Weeks 8 through 17, all but one of Chicago’s games (the Week 10 game against New England) are rated green in this shooting scoring category, suggesting we could see some of those shootings on the scoreboard.

Combine these matchup factors and Williams could see his fantasy scoring value hover near QB1 levels from now until the end of the season. That means fantasy managers should definitely consider moving him into the starting lineup during favorable matchups.

Another strategy is to pursue a trade for Williams during Chicago’s Week 7 bye. If you can get this deal done, it might be just the thing you need to help your team get some valuable wins later this year.

Is Daniel Jones a reliable fantasy starter?

Jones has had three games with more than 18 points in the last four weeks. That puts him on the short list because only five quarterbacks have had three games with 18 or more PPR points this season: Sam Darnold also has three such games, while Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels have four each.

What makes Jones’ achievement even more incredible is the fact that he did it despite scoring zero rushing touchdowns. That may seem strange for a rush-centric quarterback, but with just one rushing touchdown in his last 11 games, this could be the new normal for Jones. And while that sounds like it could be a negative, it actually suggests that his fantasy production could be more sustainable than if his points were touchdown-dependent.

Another positive is that Jones just posted a season-high 22.08 points in Seattle despite Malik Nabers not being in the lineup. That’s the kind of thing that suggests Jones could be the real deal this year.

The schedule suggests there will be more “real” games in Jones’ future. Four of the Giants’ next five games are against Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Washington and Carolina. The Eagles rank 19th in PPG allowance this year, and the other three clubs rank 26th-30th in that category.

The Week 8 matchup in Pittsburgh might see Jones benched, but other than that, every matchup from now until the Week 11 bye in New York looks like a situation in which a fantasy manager would be happy to start Jones.

This is another case where you may want to keep Jones on the roster or trade for him if a manager in your league is not sold based on Jones’ longer-term value.

Is this the end of the tight end scoring drought?

Last week’s edition of this article highlighted the lack of quality tight end prospects and offered some insight into navigating this barren fantasy scoring landscape, but Week 5 brought some encouraging news. For proof, consider how many tight ends scored 10 or more points in Weeks 1-5.

Week 1: 5

Week 2: 8

Week 3: 6

Week 4: 10

Week 5: 15

This is actually better than it looks at first glance, as Week 5 marked the first time of the season that four teams had a bye. More productive tight ends with fewer teams participating seems to be a good sign.

Some of those double-digit scoring candidates in Week 5 could be available for waivers, including Tucker Kraft (69.7 percent roster rate), Isaiah Likely (57.9), Brenton Strange (9.3), Colby Parkinson (48.1) and Tyler Conklin (37.2). .

Get one of these waiver options or continue to follow the streaming strategy suggested in the article above and it might be time to start expecting solid points from this position again.

(Top photo by Breece Hall: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)