Who is ahead in the presidential race? The polls and ratings have changed. What they say now

The countdown to Election Day is just 28 days away. The race is heated and the polls show it, with the polls and ratings over the last six weeks reflecting changes.

Last week’s vice presidential debate between Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota was likely the last debate after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for a debate in September, and this isn’t the one either Fall was agreed to another duel.

The political climate of the last few months has made history and headlines leading up to this race:

The big question still remains: Who will be the 47th President of the United States?

Here’s what polls, odds and a historian have said over the last six weeks and how they’re changing as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.

Who is ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

• ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48% to Trump 47.3% compared to Harris 48.5% to Trump 45.8% last week compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.6% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% five weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% six weeks ago.

• 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls with a 2.8% lead over Trump, compared to Harris with a 3.7% lead over Trump last week, compared to Harris with a 3% lead over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris with 2.5% ahead of Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% ahead of Trump over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump five weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% about Trump six weeks ago.

• realclearpolling shows that the betting odds are now equal between Harris and Trump, compared to Harris being favored by a spread of +1.8 over Trump last week, compared to Harris being favored by a spread of +2.3 over Trump two weeks ago was, compared to Harris, who was favored +2.0 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump five weeks ago and in Compare to Harris +1.7 over Trump six weeks ago.

• Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, expresses the betting public’s odds: Trump is at 52.8% versus Harris at 46.7%, compared to Harris, who was favored by 2% over Trump last week, compared to Harris over Trump, which was at 3% two weeks ago. compared to Harris with a 2% lead over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris with a 1% lead over Trump four weeks ago, or compared to Trump with a 4% lead over Harris five weeks ago, or compared to Harris with a 1% lead before Trump six weeks ago.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers are as of Tuesday, October 8, 2024, 11:45 a.m

What did Allan Lichtman predict for the 2024 presidential election?

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He says he uses a series of 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

How accurate were the voting rates or polls in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Survey track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher error rates.

According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In these two general elections, many surveys underestimated the attractiveness of Republican Donald Trump.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who will win the presidential election? What the Harris Polls Say to Trump