Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction, Picks, Spread, Odds, Where to Watch, TV Channel, Live Stream

Would anyone have expected Florida to gain momentum and Tennessee to falter in this annual SEC rivalry game? The Gators have rebounded well with Billy Napier in the hot seat, winning two straight – both by double figures – in must-win games against Mississippi State and UCF. A loss to UCF last week would have certainly sealed Napier’s fate, but the Gators won 24-13 and have some hope of traveling to Knoxville this week.

Meanwhile, Tennessee appears to have gone down with a thud on offense. The Volunteers didn’t look like they were part of the most explosive offense in the country in their first two SEC games – both on the road – averaging just over 19 points. The 19-14 loss at unranked Arkansas was not only disappointing, but it exposed the Vols’ weaknesses, especially after the Razorbacks installed a 3-2-6 defensive package (only four plays) to slow the Vols down, just like Oklahoma did it a few weeks ago in the Sooners’ 25-15 loss to the Vols.

The oddsmakers still favor Tennessee by two touchdowns against the Gators, but history hasn’t been kind to the Vols in that regard. Florida is 17-2 in its last 19 games, but has lost 10 of its last 11 games against top-25 teams.

Florida vs. Tennessee: What you need to know

Tennessee needs the offense to wake up: Two great defensive coordinators have overtaken Josh Heupel in the Vols’ last two games. Arkansas’ Travis Williams needed just four new plays in a 3-2-6 formation to slow the Vols, who fell short in the first half last week. Tennessee managed just 76 yards in the first 30 minutes, its lowest total of the Heupel era. Now imagine what would have happened if the Vols hadn’t protected the football as well as they did last week (zero turnovers). Florida’s defense is capable of keeping this game in the 20-point range, but the key here is that Tennessee is home for the first time in three weeks. It’s obvious Heupel has more confidence as a game manager when redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava is at Neyland Stadium. The Vols averaged 63.7 points over two games before the road trip. They averaged 19.5 points in their 1-1 start in the SEC.

Graham Mertz was solid: If you haven’t been keeping an eye on Florida since the tough home losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the quarterback situation has calmed down between Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway, and the Gators look much more competent on offense. Mertz, whose inconsistent performance had angered many, is actually leading the FBS in completing 80% or more of his passes over the last three games. Two of those performances came against subpar defenses (Mississippi State and UCF), but the Gators’ offense has regained some confidence.

Tennessee’s defense is still elite: Don’t let the loss at Arkansas fool you. The Volunteers still have one of the best defenses in the country. Against the Hogs, they gave up more than 430 yards but allowed just 19 points and were largely strong in the red zone (they also allowed a touchdown in the final 77 seconds to give the offense a chance to win the game) . They have the nation’s best defense on third downs (22.1% conversion rate) and rank second in total defense (227.6 yards) and fourth in scoring (9.4). The Vols’ defensive line is fantastic and should match Florida’s offensive line.

Here’s how to watch Florida vs. Tennessee live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 12 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)

Florida vs. Tennessee prediction, tips

Will the real Tennessee offense please step up? The Vols have struggled offensively on the road, scoring just 19.5 points in consecutive road games in the SEC after opening the season on a torrid pace (63.7 ppg). The 19-14 loss at Arkansas was an eye-opener for the Vols, who have struggled recently with a 3-2-6 defense. The good news for the Vols: Nico Iamaleava is returning home to the safe surroundings of Neyland Stadium, where he is electric (and coach Josh Heupel has more confidence as a game manager). Florida has some momentum with back-to-back wins against Mississippi State and UCF, but that’s a significant competitive boost. Graham Mertz needs to play without throwing picks, which he has been doing well of late. The Vols are 13-4 in their last 17 home games as a double-digit favorite, but this is the largest margin as a favorite against the Gators in 30 years. The Vols rebound with a vengeance in offense and coverage. Pick: Tennessee -15.5

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 7? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all using a proven computer model that has returned over $2,000 in profits since its inception – and find out.