If Trump wins, Californians will want their next senator to fight back

If President Trump is elected in November, California voters will have a clear message to the Golden State’s next senator: Protect us.

However, if Kamala Harris is elected, Californians want their next senator to focus on legislation that will help the state as much as possible.

These different results come from a new poll released Friday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies that gauges voters’ opinions of the two Senate candidates: Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey.

The poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows how the country’s largest state could act as a political counterweight if Trump is elected in November – or as an ally to Harris if she becomes the first California Democrat to win the White House.

With less than a month to go before the race to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the poll shows Schiff maintaining his large lead over Garvey. About 53% of likely voters say they prefer Schiff, a number that hasn’t changed all year, while about 36% prefer Garvey and 11% remain undecided.

The poll of 3,045 Californians was conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, ahead of this week’s heated debate between Senate candidates in Burbank.

Schiff’s high-profile positions as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and lead manager of Trump’s first impeachment trial gave him national prominence.

At Tuesday’s debate, Garvey tried to portray Schiff as someone too caught up in a vendetta against Trump to focus on issues important to California voters, asking him: “How can you think of a man every day.” think and focus on it once you’ve done it?” Do you have to take care of millions of people in California?”

But if Schiff is elected to the Senate and Trump to the White House, California’s likely voters want the Burbank congressman to continue in that role, said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the IGS poll in Berkeley.

“Schiff has portrayed himself as anti-Trump, and this data is consistent with that,” DiCamillo said.

Nearly six in 10 likely California voters would want the state’s next senator to prioritize “protecting California’s interests and opposing federal laws that would undermine the state’s existing laws and policies,” they say it in the survey.

More than four in five Schiff supporters and more than half of undecided voters say protecting California’s interests should be a top priority.

But California’s likely voters also want their next senator to reach across the aisle to work with the other party. 50% think he should focus on passing bipartisan legislation. And 49% said that if Trump is elected, the state’s next senator should make it a priority to “defy the president and challenge his orders.”

The priorities of California voters are shifting dramatically as they consider a Harris administration.

A majority of 56% said they want California’s next senator to prioritize policies and laws that deliver as many benefits to the state as possible.

Meanwhile, 48% would like to see Schiff or Garvey work with the Harris administration on its legislative agenda, while 31% said he should prioritize defending Harris from partisan attacks in the Senate.

The poll found Garvey, who played nearly two decades for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, leading Schiff in the Inland Empire and Central Valley.

The two men are in a dead heat in purple Orange County, with 46% of voters supporting each candidate.

Garvey, DiCamillo said, “is doing pretty well for a Republican statewide.” But he faces the same “structural problem as every Republican running statewide.” Among California’s registered voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.

Schiff has maintained a significant lead in California’s two most populous areas, which represent nearly half of the electorate. In Los Angeles County, 59% of likely voters said they would support Schiff, and in the San Francisco Bay Area, nearly seven in 10 said they would.

Garvey said at Tuesday’s debate that he voted for Trump three times, including in the 2024 presidential primary. But he did not seek Trump’s support, something Trump called “a big mistake” last month.

“If he doesn’t have MAGA, he doesn’t have a chance,” Trump said, referring to the acronym that stands for his motto “Make America Great Again” and his political base.

The data suggests that Garvey actually enjoys the support of Trump’s loyal fans. Of respondents who described their political views as MAGA, 92% said they plan to support Garvey.

In contrast, Schiff’s support was highest among people who identified as progressive (89%) and pro-choice (79%).

The two men had relatively similar disapproval ratings. Of likely voters, 43% said they had a positive opinion of Schiff, compared to 34% who had a negative opinion. For Garvey, about 35% of voters had a favorable opinion, 35% said they had an unfavorable opinion, and 30% expressed no opinion.