US presidential election 2024: The election result could decide whether Donald Trump will stand before the Supreme Court

The US Supreme Court helped Donald Trump win three important cases in his last term in office. But these may not be the former president’s last legal entanglements for the court to decide.

Seven major cases in which Trump is a defendant are currently in the lower courts – two of which are federal criminal cases, two are federal criminal cases and three are civil suits. These could eventually be appealed to the Supreme Court, although it is unlikely to hear any of them during its new nine-month term, which began on Monday.

This does not take into account the potential for legal disputes over the election results in the US elections on November 5th. Trump is the Republican nominee running against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. The winner becomes president on January 20th.

The fate of at least two cases involving Trump as a defendant could depend on the outcome of the election.

If Trump wins back the presidency, he could try to pardon himself or have his new leadership at the Justice Department pull the plug on the two federal criminal cases being prosecuted by special counsel Jack Smith. One of them concerns Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden. The other is secret documents he kept after his presidency ended in 2021.

State criminal charges are beyond the reach of the presidential pardon authority. The two state criminal cases involve Trump’s conviction in May on allegations of hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels in New York and allegations related to the 2020 election in Georgia.

The civil cases include a verdict against him in New York state court for civil fraud in business practices and two verdicts against him in a civil case brought by E. Jean Carroll, a writer who accused him of sexual assault, before a Federal court in New York was filed and defamation.

If Trump loses in November, all of the various cases would be heard in the lower courts and potentially appealed to the Supreme Court in due course, as would otherwise have been the case. Trump pleaded not guilty in the criminal cases and denied wrongdoing in all cases.

The Supreme Court ruled in July that former presidents enjoy “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for actions taken within the scope of their constitutional powers and slightly less protection — presumptive immunity — for conduct related to their official responsibilities. The ruling arose from Trump’s challenge to Smith’s election-related case.

The justices referred the case to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington to apply her new immunity standard to Trump’s prosecution. They directed Chutkan to go through Smith’s allegations to determine whether any fall under immunity and need to be dismissed.

Smith’s team responded to the Supreme Court ruling with a revised indictment, with prosecutors limiting their approach in light of the new immunity standard.

Assuming that Trump did not become president and did not end the case in this manner, Chutkan’s eventual application of the immunity ruling to these charges would most likely be appealed first to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia and would likely next move to the Supreme Court.

“If Trump loses the election, the Supreme Court will almost certainly reconsider his immunity as a former president,” said Steve Schwinn, a law professor at the University of Illinois Chicago. “The Supreme Court’s immunity opinion leaves much room for interpretation, and the Court will certainly review any lower court decision that interprets it.”

A Trump victory would most likely derail Smith’s cases.

“The new (Trump-appointed) attorney general would terminate the special counsel appointment and drop the charges against Trump,” said Anthony Michael Kreis, a law professor at Georgia State University College of Law.

The Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority includes three justices appointed by Trump. In another favorable decision, the court in March overturned a court ruling that had barred Trump from the presidential election in Colorado. In June, it raised the legal hurdle for prosecutors to bring obstruction charges in the federal election subversion case against Trump and defendants involved in the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

DOCUMENT CASE

Smith’s office has asked the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reinstate federal criminal charges related to the documents after Florida-based U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case in July.

Cannon, who was appointed to the bench by Trump in 2020, ruled that Smith’s appointment in 2022 violated the U.S. Constitution because Congress did not authorize Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a special counsel with that level of power and independence.

The 11th District is not expected to govern until March at the earliest. Assuming a new Trump administration hasn’t already fired Smith, the Supreme Court “will very likely consider the constitutionality of Smith’s appointment,” said Erica Hashimoto, a law professor at Georgetown University.

Conservative Justice Clarence Thomas has already expressed interest in addressing the legality surrounding special counsel. Four judges must agree to hear a case for it to be heard by the court.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in the hush money case by Judge Juan Merchan on November 26th. Hashimoto said the judge would likely delay sentencing if Trump wins the election. Ultimately, Trump could appeal his conviction to the Supreme Court.

“Trump also made an immunity argument in the New York hush money case,” Hashimoto said, “and it will undoubtedly be one of the arguments he will make to the Supreme Court if he loses in the New York Court of Appeals.”

ELECTION CASE OF GEORGIA

Trump could similarly seek immunity from prosecution in a Supreme Court appeal related to the Georgia election, in which he and 14 co-defendants have pleaded not guilty to charges they sought to overturn his 2020 defeat in Georgia .

The case has been put on hold while a Georgia appeals court considers whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, the lead prosecutor, should be disqualified for alleged misconduct related to a romantic relationship she had with a former top aide. Appeals are scheduled for December.

“The Georgia case could have the same immunity issues as the federal election interference case if Georgia reopens the case,” said Gregory Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University.

The Georgia case is “another opportunity to move the issue of immunity back to the Supreme Court,” Schwinn added.

The case could be affected if Trump wins in November.

“The state case against Trump in Fulton County would likely have to be held up for further proceedings until Trump leaves office. However, the proceedings against the accused co-conspirators would continue without him,” said Kreis.

Trump is appealing to the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York the two judgments against him in the Carroll lawsuits – one for $5 million and the other for $83.3 million. An appeal has already been made. In the other case, Trump’s lawyer filed his brief with the 2nd Circuit.

Trump is also appealing the nearly half-billion-dollar verdict against him for real estate business practices in the civil fraud case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

“I expect the appeal to continue,” Germain said. “But there are so many problems with this case that a reversal seems very likely.”