MLB Playoffs: What Yankees and Guardians must do to win ALCS

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees are headed to the 2024 American League Championship Series!

New York moved one step closer to its first World Series appearance since 2009 by knocking out the Kansas City Royals in four games and now faces another American League Central team after Cleveland beat Detroit in a thrilling ALDS defeated.

What did we learn about each of these teams? What does each side have to do to get a ticket to the Fall Classic? And who could the ALCS decider be? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield explain it all.

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Cleveland Guardians

What surprised you most during the Guardians’ postseason?

Rogers: There was some good and some bad. The Good: Cade Smith has become Cleveland’s middle-game closer who can finish a dirty inning and then come back out for more since back-and-forth between frames isn’t a problem for him. He offers so much value to fill that late innings gap. In the ALDS, he appeared in all five games and gave up just one run on one hit in 6⅓ innings. On the other hand, Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians’ actual confidant, seemed human. Kerry Carpenter’s home run in Game 2 stunned everyone, including Clase. Giving up another run in Game 4 didn’t help the star reliever’s confidence. Clase’s problems were surprising – even if they appear to be more short-term than trend-related.

Doolittle: Cleveland’s standout strengths entering October were clear: Jose Ramirez on the batting side and a deep, impregnable bullpen on the pitching side. Looking at the series as a whole, the offense was carried by players like Steven Kwan, David Fry and Brayan Rocchio. And with the bullpen, particularly Clase, somewhat uneven, Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd were crucial in keeping Detroit down in the first innings. Bibee/Boyd…it’s not exactly Feller/Lemon or even Kluber/Carrasco, but the Guardians wouldn’t be there if the rotation hadn’t held up so well.

Why will the Yankees continue (or not) in the ALCS?

Rogers: The Guardians have plenty of strong right-handed hitting options that they can get out of the bullpen in big spots. You can imagine a scenario where Smith faces Aaron Judge five or six times in the series, not to mention Hunter Gaddis and Clase facing Judge. Smith’s splits are even better against lefties, so it’s not like Juan Soto would have an easy time against him either. The bullpen options will keep Cleveland in the game.

Doolittle: The first innings, those first two trips through the Yankees’ lineup, will be filled with anxiety for Guardians fans. With the LDS behind them, the formula for Cleveland remains the same as it was at the start of the playoffs: advance into the middle innings with a lead and let Clase, Gattis, Tim Herrin and the rest work. I just can’t imagine the Guardians getting the upper hand over the Yankees’ order, which presents a much different challenge than what Cleveland saw against Detroit. So you’re wondering how often Stephen Vogt will find a lead to his Power Pen.

Who is the one player who will decide the Guardians’ ALCS fate?

Rogers: Take your pick: Jose Ramirez or Josh Naylor. What does the Guardians benefit most from the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium? Assuming the Yankees don’t let Ramirez beat him, this could be a series in which Naylor elevates his play at the plate. At some point the Yankees will hit, and Ramirez and Naylor will have to keep up with them.

Doolittle: Sure, Naylor was an RBI machine during the season and has had some big postseason moments (including against the Yankees) in his young career. Still, Ramirez is the Cleveland hitter most likely to drive the offense, especially in crucial early innings. If the Guardians are able to score the much-needed runs that will put them ahead of their relievers, Ramirez will have to attack to supply them, and he is capable of doing so, even if Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are at this point You are in top shape and take the hill.

New York Yankees

What surprised you most during the Yankees’ postseason?

Passan: Luke Weaver, best left-handed hitter in the playoffs? That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but when you consider all the damage that has already been done against closers this October, Weaver’s four-out save in Game 1, five-out save in Game 3 and the game-winning save in Game 4, that the Yankees took down a guy who was expected to be a mass reliever and turned him into a hillbilly. Since taking over as closer in early September, Weaver has not allowed an earned run in 12 appearances, striking out 29 over 15⅓ innings while allowing just nine baserunners. For a team that was wondering who would close out after Clay Holmes faltered, Weaver has provided the answer – and with the added benefit of being able to go multiple innings if needed.

Schönfield: Yes, they can win without Aaron Judge being the Bambino, the Mick and Mr. October all in one. Judge went 2 of 13, didn’t drive in a run and scored just twice in the ALDS. Of course, it helped that the Yankees didn’t have to score many runs because they were playing a Royals team that had been playing like a dead-ball-era lineup since mid-September. The next round might not be much different: The Guardians won’t score many runs, so the Yankees can win these low-scoring games as long as Weaver and the bullpen continue to slam the door. And maybe Judge is relaxing knowing they can win without him hitting home runs. Although that would help.

Why will the Guardians continue (or not) in the ALCS?

Passan: It will continue because it’s much harder to manage a bullpen over a seven-game series than over three or five games, and the Yankees’ ability to wear down pitchers could be what ultimately gets to the Guardians’ bullpen . It won’t continue if the Yankees continue to produce the mediocre starting pitching they had until Gerrit Cole’s masterpiece in Game 4. The likelihood of their bullpen continuing its scoreless streak or even getting close to it is minimal, even if the Guardians’ lineup isn’t a juggernaut. Cleveland’s ability to field an almost entirely left-handed lineup against Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt, with soft-tossers Tim Hill and Tim Mayza being the only left-handed options in the bullpen, is quite beneficial.

Schönfield: Simply put: the judge is due. This is a guy who is coming off arguably the best offensive season ever as a right-handed hitter. Sure, there are ways to attack him, and teams have done so very successfully in Judge’s recent postseason series. But one reason Judge has hit .322/.458/.701 is because he’s able to make the necessary adjustments. It will help take the pressure off Judge if Soto can get going as well. Soto drew a few walks against the Royals, and putting more runners on base will force Cleveland pitchers to attack Judge a little more – especially if Giancarlo Stanton continues to hit well (it might be time to move him to the to move the clean-up area). Walks are nice, but Soto also needs to exert some strength.

Who is the one player who will decide the Yankees’ ALCS fate?

Passan: It has to be Aaron Judge. The Yankees managed to win without his input. A run. No runs batted. Judge’s career playoff numbers are already paltry compared to his regular-season success, but 2-for-13 with five strikeouts is something entirely different for the future American League MVP. That’s actually the scariest thing about the Yankees: If they win without Judge, imagine what it will be like when he starts hitting.

The Guardians, on the other hand, are here because manager Stephen Vogt has handled his bullpen superbly all season. While there isn’t much division in the platoon with Judge – he crushed both right-handed and left-handed hitters in the regular season – Vogt has a wide range of dominant right-handed hitters, from Cade Smith to Hunter Gaddis to Emmanuel Clase’s disposal. Pulling Matthew Boyd after just two innings in Saturday’s Division Series proves he will rely heavily on his relief corps to keep batters from facing pitchers multiple times. So not only will the best hitter in baseball this season be trying to find his swing, he’ll be doing so with a new arm and different things at almost every plate appearance.

Schönfield: Since we’ve already covered Judge and Weaver, let’s turn to someone on the other side: Jose Ramirez. The Guardians definitely won’t score many runs – and while they have a few potential contributors in players like Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and David Fry, their offense revolves around Ramirez doing damage. For all of Judge’s postseason beating, Ramirez was even less productive in his playoff career, hitting just three home runs in 37 games. If Ramirez scores, the Guardians have a chance. However, he only hit .130 (3 for 23) against the Yankees in the regular season, so the Yankees had success against him.