US elections 2024: What happens if Donald Trump rejects the presidential poll results?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says if he doesn’t win this Election on November 5thhe will declare fraud and not accept the results — just as he did four years ago when he lost to Democratic President Joe Biden.

“If I lose – I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re going to lose, because they’re cheating,” Trump said at a rally in Michigan in September.

After Trump lost the 2020 election, he and his allies tried to overturn the result through dozens of lawsuits, which ultimately failed to change or delay the vote count.

He also pressured Georgia officials to find more votes for him; and his supporters stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 in a failed attempt to stop his Vice President Mike Pence from certifying Biden’s victory.

A key difference this time is that Trump does not have the levers of presidential power that he did in 2020. In addition, new state and federal laws were passed to make it more difficult to influence election results.

Still, Trump and his allies have been laying the groundwork for months to sue in the event of defeat on November 5th. He could deny him a victory Democratic rival Kamala Harris in court or raise doubts about the validity of their victory among supporters, which could have unforeseen consequences.

SMOKE AND MIRRORS

Republicans and Democrats expect vote counting could drag on for several more days after Nov. 5 as mail-in ballots are tabulated and other votes are counted and verified.

If it appears Trump is losing, the delay will give him the opportunity to allege fraud and try to undermine confidence in election officials, while also potentially encouraging his supporters to protest. He has already threatened to jail poll workers and other officials for “unconscionable behavior,” even though that would first require him to win the election.

Trump can make his case directly to the American public without waiting for evidence using social media, press conferences and interviews.

“President Trump has made it very clear that we must have free and fair elections,” said Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

ON THE BATTLEFIELDS

Republicans have already taken preemptive action filed more than 100 lawsuits setting the stage for post-election challenges in the battleground states that will decide the election, including claiming without evidence that non-citizens will vote in large numbers.

Both parties plan to send thousands of trained volunteers, called election observers, to monitor voting and vote counting and report any irregularities.

Some voting rights activists worry that Republican poll watchers could be disruptive, but the Republican Party says the volunteers have been trained to follow the law.

As in 2020, Trump’s allies in key states — local election officials, state lawmakers and perhaps judges — could try to delay certification, the confirmation of a state’s official record, by alleging fraud.

Those efforts were unsuccessful last time, and election law experts say the laws in those states clearly show that local officials have no authority to throw out ballots or derail the process.

Five of the seven battleground states have Democratic governors, but Democratic activists worry about Georgia, whose state election board recently gave local officials unprecedented authority to conduct investigations, a move they say will give bad faith actors trying to to compete opens the door and delays the counting of votes.

However, a Georgia judge ruled this week Local officials must certify the results and have no discretion to do otherwise.

All states must submit their certified totals Electoral College meets in December and voters cast their votes. This vote will then be presented to Congress in January for final confirmation.

Trump-inspired legal challenges and certification delays could cause a state to miss the filing deadline. That could be cause for objection from Republicans in Congress.

Some election law experts note that it is difficult to predict how novel litigation over certification might be resolved, especially if they are handled by judges who agree with Trump’s claims.

Congress has the final say

After the 2020 election, Congress passed a reform law that made it harder for candidates to meet the challenge that Trump attempted.

It makes clear that the vice president, who in this case would be Harris, has no authority to delay national certification or throw out a state’s results, as Trump urged Pence to do in 2020.

The measure also stipulates that no objection can be made to a state’s vote count unless a fifth of the members of each house of Congress agree. After that, a majority vote in each house is required for an objection to be found valid.

In the unlikely event that enough electoral votes are cast so that neither candidate achieves the required majority, the newly elected U.S. House of Representatives would elect the next president.

CIVIL UNREST

Any attempt by Trump to suggest election fraud could potentially lead to civil unrest, as was the case on January 6, 2021.

Experts who monitor militant right-wing groups, such as Peter Montgomery of the liberal think tank People For the American Way, say they are less worried about a violent response from those groups than about threats against election workers counting votes. Violent demonstrations could also occur in the capitals of the contested states, said Montgomery.

Hundreds of people involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol have been convicted and jailed for their actions, providing a strong deterrent to others who may consider similar actions.