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topicnews · October 18, 2024

What polls say about Michigan and other key states

What polls say about Michigan and other key states

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It’s no secret why Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former Republican President Donald Trump will be in Michigan for several events on Friday.

The polls suggest the Nov. 5 election, just over two weeks away, will be a win for both sides, with Michigan and a handful of other swing states so close that they’re not just within the error limit, but within tenths of a percentage point. With mail-in ballots already in circulation and early voting about to begin in Michigan, time is running out for both to gain a meaningful advantage.

The fact is that while Harris maintains a lead of about 2 percentage points in the national polls, that likely won’t be enough to put her over the top in the Electoral College, which will decide the outcome, since the swing states will decide that outcome – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia generally lean more Republican than the U.S. population as a whole.

And since the Free Press last looked at polling averages aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.com, RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com in late September, Harris’ numbers have gotten slightly worse while Trump’s have improved slightly. Nationally, those averages have moved only about half a percentage point toward Trump, but he has seen a slightly larger improvement in swing states.

Take Michigan for example.

As of September 26, these three political websites had Harris ahead in the state by a margin of 1.8% (RealClearPolitics.com) to 4% (270towin.com). Here’s where these poll averages stood as of Thursday afternoon (and note that the percentage range sometimes doesn’t match the poll numbers due to rounding done by these sites):

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.7% (+0.6), Trump 47.1%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.3% (+1), Harris 47.3%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 47.6% (undecided), Harris 47.6%.

That’s as close as a race can get, and it suggests that Trump has as good a chance of winning Michigan as he did in 2016 by about two-tenths of a percentage point over Hillary Clinton, as did Harris at this point. And that is crucial. While Michigan isn’t the biggest Electoral College player among swing states (that would be Pennsylvania with 19 EC votes, as well as Georgia and North Carolina with 16 votes each), it’s hard to imagine Harris winning without Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes (all awarded to whoever wins the state). Michigan is considered the most Democratic of all swing states, and Democratic President Joe Biden beat Trump in the state in 2020 by about 3 percentage points, or more than 154,000 votes.

What follows is an updated look at the state of polling averages in all other swing states. You can see for yourself how things have tightened up almost everywhere and it looks like the race between Harris and Trump is coming down to the wire, with the possibility of late-counted mail-in ballots, lawsuits and recounts potentially playing a role in that Result.

First, just a note about the averages. As mentioned, they are different because each site (and others) has their own methodology for which surveys they aggregate over which time period. But taken together, they clearly indicate the direction in which voter polls are trending in a given state or at the national level (depending, of course, on how many polls have been conducted and who is conducting them).

Another note: If Harris won the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but lost the other swing states (and everything else remained the same until the 2020 election), she would receive the 270 Electoral College votes that she needed to win. Conversely, Trump would win if he could win Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina – three traditionally Republican states despite his losses in Arizona and Georgia four years ago – if he could win any of the blue wall states. (Nevada wouldn’t be necessary to win.)

Here’s what the polling averages looked like in every other state on Thursday, as well as the number of votes each had and how everyone voted four years ago:

Pennsylvania (19 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50%-48.8% +1.2)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48% (+0.4), Trump 47.5%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.5), Harris 47.4%.
  • 270towin.com: Harris 47.9% (+0.3), Trump 47.6%.

Wisconsin (10 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.6%-48.9% +0.7)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.9% (+0.3), Trump 47.6%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+0.3), Trump 48%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 48.4% (+0.6), Harris 47.8%.

Arizona (11 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.4%-49.1% +0.3)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.6), Harris 46.8%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.1), Harris 47.3%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 48.7% (+1.5), Harris 47.2%.

Nevada (6 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50.1%-47.7% +2.4)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.7% (+0.7), Trump 47%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.7% (+0.5), Harris 47.2%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 46.8% (undecided), Harris 46.8%.

North Carolina (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Trump 50%-48.7% +1.3)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.1% (+0.7), Harris 47.4%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.7% (+1.2), Harris 47.5%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.5), Harris 47.4%.

Georgia (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.5%-49.2% +0.3)

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.8% (+1.8), Harris 46.9%.
  • RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.7% (+0.9), Harris 47.8%.
  • 270towin.com: Trump 49% (+1.3), Harris 47.7%.

When is the election?

Election Day is November 5th and polls in Michigan are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m

Want to learn more about this year’s elections in Michigan? Check out our voter guide, subscribe to our election newsletter and share your thoughts in a letter to the editor at any time.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

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