After a week of stunning allegations, the strange world of 2015 seems far away

Nine years ago this fall, the leaders of what were then three major federal parties gathered on a stage in Toronto for a debate about foreign policy. The result discussion seems a bit quaint to me now.

The topics covered – Canada’s contribution to the fight against the Islamic State, a refugee crisis in Syria, the Conservative government’s anti-terrorism laws – were not exactly insignificant. But India received only a fleeting hint. Donald Trump, who announced his candidacy for President of the United States four months earlier, was not mentioned at all. Neither was China.

In the truest sense of the word, it was a different time.

Canada’s relationship with China has been defined by “Panda diplomacy,” not “Hostage diplomacy.” “Foreign interference” was not yet in the popular lexicon. And there was no reason to ask party leaders how they would react if they found out about it allegations that a nominal ally on Canadian soil had promoted a campaign of violence and extortion against Canadian citizens.

The last nine years should humble anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen in the next nine years. But last week’s remarkable revelations and allegations – from the expulsion of six Indian diplomats to the prime minister’s challenge to the Conservatives in the foreign interference probe on Wednesday – underscore how the world has become a more dangerous place for Canada, in part This is due to national leaders who have no inhibitions about acting aggressively towards this country and its citizens.

“The world is more uncertain and less safe than ever before, and the response Canada must give is to strengthen the rule of law and the international rules-based order that protects us all,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the Foreign interference investigation this week.

While the Prime Minister’s comments bordered on hyperbole – the world was certainly more uncertain during two world wars – it is fair to say that Canadians are now facing threats that could not have been foreseen in 2015. This reality continues to prove difficult to come to terms with.

The challenges of an uncertain world

For example, whenever Canada gets into a dispute with another country, there is a strange tendency in our political and professional communities to assume that Canada is somehow in the wrong or that Canadian officials need to apologize and make amends. The last nine years – from Donald Trump to China to India – have pushed this Canadian reflex past its breaking point.

Regardless, Conservatives would certainly say that the Liberals have failed at all to meet the challenge. And the Liberals may have to admit that they were unprepared for what has unfolded or unraveled in recent years.

But liberals can certainly point to their efforts to minimize the threat posed by Trump by renegotiating NAFTA. The Liberal government also eventually assembled an international coalition to publicly shame China over the detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

Most of the infrastructure that exists today to deal with foreign interference was put in place by the Trudeau government. And it was the Liberals who created a national security committee made up of parliamentarians – something the Harper government opposed.

Liberals can also say that the investigation into foreign interference did not result in the massive cover-up that the administration’s critics were so quick to allege. However, the investigation still revealed significant deficiencies in information sharing and a political system that has not fully addressed the threat.

For months, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been content to point fingers and make serious accusations. But by refusing to obtain the security clearance that would allow him to review sensitive information himself — while arguing that doing so would somehow limit his ability to go after the government — he exposed himself to an attack of the sort , as Trudeau denounced him on Wednesday.

If foreign interference poses a threat to the Conservative Party – the June National Security Committee report contained a claim Indian interference In a conservative leadership contest, the conservative leader should want to know the details. And while Trudeau might now be accused of politicizing the issue of national security, his testimony before the commission also called on Poilievre to confront one of the very real challenges of this moment.

Canada and the new global disorder

These challenges are unlikely to magically disappear when Trudeau leaves office. And while it’s unwise to predict how the next nine years will unfold, it seems wise to plan for further uncertainty.

Adam Chapnick, a defense and foreign policy scholar at the Royal Military College of Canada, suggests looking at the challenges of this era from two possible perspectives.

On the one hand, he suggested, it could be that there is simply less respect for international norms and institutions and that some powers are more willing to trample on medium-sized countries.

On the other hand, he added, it could be that Canada’s place in the world has diminished to the point that “more powerful countries with different interests than us no longer take ourselves seriously enough to fear that it would be a violation of anything if.” “We are being trampled on.” international norm.”

There may be some truth in both perspectives. Whatever the case, the current situation seems to demand more from Canada – not only better protections for Canadian institutions and citizens, but also stronger contributions to the world at large and the maintenance of strong alliances.

At the same time, the consequences of climate change will of course continue to be felt – and will probably lead to new consequences Migration and refugee crises.

It has become increasingly difficult for us to view the world beyond our borders as a secondary concern. The problems that this world brings with it are becoming increasingly difficult to overcome.

All of this demands more from Canadian leaders, starting with the ability to see classified information. And that gives federal party leaders a lot more to discuss the next time they come together on stage to debate foreign policy.