Brandenburg: Analyze | BrandenburgTrend: Catching up with an open end

Shortly before the state election, the Brandenburg SPD continues to gain ground in the polls. This is thanks to Dietmar Woidke. Suddenly a long, unrealistic coalition seems possible. But is the race to catch up coming at a significant cost? By Oliver Noffke

The SPD continues to gain ground, the AfD remains stable and is thus the strongest force by a small margin. Alliance 90/The Greens lose slightly. It is becoming more likely that BVB/Free Voters will make it into the state parliament via the second votes.

At first glance, the political mood in Brandenburg has only shifted slightly compared to last week. There are still a number of uncertainties surrounding the distribution of seats in the next state parliament.

And yet, suddenly, government options that were unthinkable for a long time seem possible. This is the result of the BrandenburgTrend, which was published on Thursday. The survey was carried out by Infratest Dimap on behalf of ARD.

As last week, the AfD received the most support in the so-called “Sunday question”. It remains unchanged at 27 percent. The SPD is now in second place with 26 percent (plus two points). 16 percent of those surveyed would vote for the CDU, 13 percent for the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition. Both are two points worse off than they were a week ago.

This means that a coalition government of two parties seems possible for the first time in a long time. The SPD and CDU together had a majority. Their lead in parliamentary seats would be much smaller than in the case of the current government. In general, however, two-party coalitions are considered to be much more stable. The fewer opinions there are on an issue, the easier it is to find compromises.

However, it is uncertain whether this will actually happen due to some peculiarities of Brandenburg’s electoral law.

All or nothing, kingmaker or failure

Firstly, the question remains whether the Greens, BVB/Free Voters and also the Left Party will really not be represented in the next state parliament if they clear the five percent hurdle on September 22. Parties that win at least one direct mandate in Brandenburg are allowed to send as many representatives to parliament as they are entitled to based on the second votes, even if they receive less than five percent of the second votes.

Currently, all three parties are just under five percent. They also believe they have a good chance of getting the most first votes in at least one constituency. However, the results of the Sunday question do not indicate whether this will happen. The survey shows what the mood in Brandenburg is like overall. In individual regions and in the parties’ strongholds, significant deviations are to be expected on election night. Infratest Dimap therefore expressly states that this survey is not a forecast, but a snapshot of the mood. Undecided voters or those who voted tactically can have a decisive influence on the outcome of the election.

Regardless of whether the second vote result is sufficient or the basic mandate clause applies: If one of the three parties manages to enter the state parliament, it could become the kingmaker. The SPD and CDU would not be able to form a majority on their own and would have to rely on a third partner. However, if two of these parties make it into the state parliament, or all three, the only option for a three-way alliance with SPD and CDU participation would probably be the BSW.

A coalition with AfD participation would be mathematically possible. All other parties currently represented in the state parliament, as well as the BSW, have ruled out a coalition with the AfD.

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What costs is the SPD increasing?

The SPD owes its rapid recovery to its top candidate, say the pollsters. If citizens could choose the prime minister directly, even every second CDU or BSW supporter would vote for him. Among their own party’s supporters, 94 percent would vote for Woidke. Even among AfD supporters, Woidke received 13 percent of approval. Only 36 percent of AfD supporters would vote directly for top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt.

The strategy of the Brandenburg Social Democrats could also continue. From the beginning, they had based their election campaign on the popularity of the current Prime Minister Woidke. Within a month, he was able to increase the poor poll ratings of the Brandenburg SPD by seven points. The question is where this popularity comes from. If Woidke draws votes from the Greens or the CDU, this will jeopardize the chances of a joint coalition.

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Many Overhang mandate will be slightly less likely

It remains to be seen whether many overhang mandates are to be expected. They arise when a party wins more constituencies directly via the first votes than it is entitled to according to the result of the second votes.

Overhang mandates are always likely when several parties receive similar levels of support in elections and there is no clear frontrunner. The more constituencies a party wins with a narrow lead over its competitors, the more likely an overhang mandate becomes.

If overhang mandates are lost, they should be balanced out. Because in the end, the composition of parliament should reflect the result of the second votes. In the Bundestag and many other state parliaments, overhang mandates can simply be balanced out.

This is not the case in Brandenburg. The state constitution limits parliament to a maximum of 110 seats. A high number of overhang seats could destroy the balance of power in the Brandenburg state parliament. Disputes between the parties would be inevitable, and lawsuits before the state constitutional court would be avoided.

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Doubts remain

However, the results of the BrandenburgTrend cannot be broken down into the mood in the 44 constituencies. It is therefore impossible to predict whether and, if so, how many overhang mandates there will be in the election.

Ultimately, there is also a statistical uncertainty. Infratest Dimap points out that the results of the survey showed fluctuations of two to three points. This means that the pollsters assume that the survey results can deviate from the actual mood in the country. The AfD also achieved 27 percent in the BrandenburgTrend. If it had actually been elected, it could expect a result in the range of 25 to 29 percent.

Even small deviations within these areas have the potential to significantly shift the balance of power in the next state parliament. Between the frontrunners AfD and SPD. But especially among the three parties that are currently having to fear re-election: Alliance 90/The Greens, BVB/Free Voters and the Left. Ten days before the state election in Brandenburg, much is still uncertain.

About the survey: The BrandenburgTrend was commissioned by ARD. The opinion research institute Infratest Dimap surveyed 1,513 people who are eligible to vote in Brandenburg between September 9 and 11. Their selection was random.