Score prediction for Kansas vs. UNLV by an expert football model

The Week 3 college football schedule begins Friday night. Kansas looks to rebound from last week’s loss to an unranked opponent and now returns home to face UNLV.

Kansas fell to 1-1 this year after losing at Illinois last week, with quarterback Jalon Daniels passing for just 141 yards and the offense responsible for four turnovers.

UNLV has a perfect record through two games and scored 72 points in a win over Utah Tech last weekend to move to 2-0 for the first time since 1999. This is an important step as the Rebels look to create the most leverage possible for the Group of Five playoff spots.

Tonight’s game will mark the first time Kansas and UNLV have met on the same field since the 2023 Guaranteed Rate Bowl, when the Jayhawks won 49-36 and lead the series 2-1 overall.

What are the analysts predicting for the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Kansas and UNLV compare in this Week 3 college football game.

The simulations currently assume that the Jayhawks will win at home against the Rebels.

SP+ predicts Kansas to defeat UNLV by a projected score of 36 to 27 and win the game by a projected 9.1 points.

The model gives the Jayhawks a solid 72 percent chance of a clear win in this game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a winning percentage of 51.6.

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas is a 9.5-point favorite against UNLV, giving them a total of 57.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for an outright win for Kansas at -335 and for UNLV at +265.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models also suggest that the Jayhawks will win today’s game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Kansas is projected to win in 73.7 percent of updated computer simulations, while UNLV is expected to win in the remaining 26.3 percent of simulations.

The index predicts that with both teams currently playing on the same field, Kansas will outperform UNLV by 6.5 points, which is also not enough to make up the difference.

According to the models, Kansas will win 7.1 games this season and is seventh among Big 12 teams with a 7.4 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

The computer projects UNLV to win 8.3 games this season, and the team is ranked second in the Mountain West with a 9 percent chance of making the 12-team playoffs.

When: Friday, September 13
Time: 6pm Central
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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