Institute creates rapid analysis: Climate change probably caused flood disaster

Institute creates rapid analysis
Climate change probably caused a flood disaster

16.09.2024, 17:08

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When disasters occur such as the floods in Austria and the Czech Republic, many people ask themselves: What role does climate change play in this? Researchers have an initial answer in the current case. In view of the climate crisis, the Greens are calling for more money for preventive measures.

According to a quick analysis, climate change probably played a major role in the current heavy rain episode in Central Europe. Natural climate variability alone could not explain the intensity of the observed event, says the Climameter research consortium. The storm was caused by a sharp contrast between polar air and warmer, moist air from the unusually hot Mediterranean region.

“We attribute the heavy rainfall leading to the floods in Central Europe mainly to human-induced climate change, while natural climate variability probably played a minor role,” said Climameter, a research project funded by the European Union and the French research organization CNRS.

Result with

However, the uncertainty surrounding this conclusion is quite large, as this is an unusual event. The so-called attribution study uses data on similar low-pressure systems from the present (2001-2023) and the past (1979-2001) in the region. For such a study, meteorological measurements from the past decades and climate simulations are statistically evaluated.

Heavy rain events such as the current storm “Boris” are up to 20 percent more intense today than at the end of the 20th century, Climameter said. “Boris” has caused severe flooding in countries in Central and Eastern Europe such as Romania, Poland, Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. According to the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extremes in the water cycle are increasing faster than the average change, it also said. At a local level, a trend towards more river floods can be observed in Western and Central Europe.

Lang calls for more money for climate protection

The connection between climate change and flooding is also being discussed in politics. “It is not normal that we experience flooding lasting several centuries within a year,” said Green Party leader Ricarda Lang. She opposed efforts not to talk about climate protection in the current disaster situation: “To ignore an obvious connection is nothing other than denying reality,” said Lang. “It is time for us to act now.” More money is also needed for this.

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has also called for more determination in climate protection. Specifically, this includes “the faster expansion of renewables, the heat transition, climate-friendly production in industry,” the Green politician told the newspapers of the Funke Media Group. However, the prevailing extreme weather can no longer be avoided. Further precautionary measures are therefore important, Habeck demanded. It is about “strong dikes, retention systems, more space for rivers” in order to better protect people.