How the assassination of Donald Trump affects betting and polls on the US election | US News

In any other race, an assassination attempt on a candidate would have been the most dramatic and potentially game-deciding event.

In this race there were now two Donald Trump. And this already follows extraordinary events such as the last-minute replacement an incumbent president as a candidate.

But look at our recently launched poll tracker, and it looks as calm as a pristine puddle – US Vice President Kamala Harris with slight fluctuations.

And that includes some of the recent polls that followed the Trump-Harris debate.

Why is it so consistent? Because it is the average of many polls, because the polls themselves react slowly to events, and because a large part of the electorate has already decided who they will vote for.

However, if you want to get a feel for a real race, wheel to wheel, with the candidates getting into the lead and then falling back again, then look at the betting data.

You can see events that cause major changes almost in real time, including the recent obvious attempted murderwhich seems to indicate a slight decline in chances.

Compare that with the rise he experienced after the Assassination attempt on 13 July.

Or take a look US President Joe Biden The chances dropped immediately after his debate with Mr Trump.

And the debate between Trump and Harris last week seems to have boosted Mrs Harris’s chances.

However, there are restrictions: betting on presidential elections is prohibited in the USA, so these are exclusively international bets.

Still, it’s a lot of money: According to Betfair, around £66 million has been wagered so far – and people are making their promises too.

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The most important thing is how close the result is. This may seem odd when you revisit the key poll results, which show a consistent lead for Harris.

But due to the US electoral system and the Electoral College, which awards the votes of the states, Harris should have a much larger lead.

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And the reason the race is so close – the reason the betting markets show such wide swings even when the polls don’t – is because we can’t say whether Ms. Harris’s lead will be enough.

Currently, it is better than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 – when she won a majority of the vote but still lost in the Electoral College – but not as big as Mr Biden’s in 2020.

Pollsters disagree on how big their lead needs to be to translate into success in the electoral college.

But even then, in a swing state like Pennsylvania, which plays a key role in this race, it could come down to a tiny fraction of the electorate.

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In 2016, just over six million people voted in Pennsylvania, and Mrs. Clinton lost the state by just 44,000 votes.

This race is so close – and that’s why so many people are putting their tips forward.