What would a Harris presidency mean for Europe?

Roberta Haar examines what a Harris presidency could mean for Europe.

While we can only speculate about what kind of global leader US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris will be, we can say with a little more certainty what her agenda might entail. Like Joe Biden, Harris must contend with the populist, protectionist and anti-interventionist sentiments that are rising among the American public today – sentiments that Trump has both inflamed and exploited for political purposes. The actual mood of the American electorate and the current threats on the world stage will influence Harris’ foreign policy agenda.

Risk reduction continues

Harris’s handling of the populist, protectionist and anti-interventionist sentiments currently rising in the American public means she will be more like Biden and less like fellow Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, both of whom represented the liberal, multilateral post-war paradigm of free trade. Likewise, Harris will certainly continue the Biden administration’s China policies, including de-risking supply chains and moving toward technology containment (which, incidentally, is very similar to Trump’s policies). However, she may tone down the trade war. This speculation is based on the fact that as a senator she criticized Trump’s approach to Beijing and told Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 vice presidential debate that Trump had “lost that trade war” and that his tariffs had hurt the American economy without achieving a reset in U.S.-China relations.

A continuation of the risk-minimization policy also means that Harris is likely to maintain the current approach to technological security and seek U.S. dominance in new technologies, which Europeans are sure to experience negatively. This includes continuing to support investment in U.S. production of high technologies such as semiconductors, opposing technology regulations primarily advocated by the European Union, and being willing to blur the lines on issues ranging from data collection to military applications of AI – all in the interest of national security.

Deadliest fighting force in the world

On global security, she is likely to echo Biden’s policies. At the 2022 Munich Security Conference, Harris said NATO is “the greatest military alliance the world has ever seen” and that America’s commitment to Article 5’s self-defense pledge is “ironclad” and “inviolable.” At the 2023 Ukraine Peace Summit, where she met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Harris called for a “just and lasting peace.” In her speech to the DNC, Harris said she would “ensure that the United States does not abandon its global leadership role.” She also expressed confidence in standing “strongly with Ukraine and our NATO allies.” These policy positions will take significant pressure off U.S. allies in European capitals.

Overall, a Harris administration (like its predecessor) is likely to bring both light and shade for the Europeans, as it pursues a flexible approach that emphasizes U.S. interests in economic competitiveness while restoring multilateral security ties with traditional allies in Europe and Asia – issues that the REMIT consortium is seriously exploring.

Will she win?

Knowing all these things about Harris leads us to the next question: How likely is she to win? Unfortunately, the American electorate is rather siloed, with people spending too much time in digital echo chambers where they rarely encounter opposing views. This means the election will be decided in a few places where the silos are less pronounced, namely the seven swing states.

The small number of voters who will choose the next president is prompting European leaders to play it safe. About 20 European ambassadors showed up at the Republican convention in Milwaukee to pledge their allegiance to Trump. Trump’s choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate heightened fears that the party’s isolationist wing was on the rise. During his 2022 Senate campaign, for example, Vance said he “couldn’t care at all what happens in Ukraine.”

America, hopelessly divided

In previous years, after my summer trips to South Dakota, I wrote about deep divisions and the people who asked me if the US was on the brink of civil war. My Dutch readers will be happy to hear that tensions seemed to be lower this year and there were more signs of neighbourly help and generosity. I attended an American Legion meeting where the veterans first sang Happy Birthday to me and then congratulated my mother on her 6,000 hours of volunteer work. For over 18 years, my mother drove sick veterans to their doctor’s appointments, and since she retired, she greets them every morning at the local veterans’ clinic. My mother believes that sacrifice and generosity are not for suckers.

These values ​​and qualities will bring balance to American politics and help heal what is often a hopelessly divided world. These values ​​also form the basis for the belief that America can be a force for good. If the next U.S. president internalizes this simple idea—that America may to be a force for good – it would be an important first step toward moral and effective leadership for Americans and their allies, including those in Europe.

As a final anecdotal note that Harris could be that effective leader, my younger son, who swore off voting after the Biden-Trump debate, filled out his absentee ballot application this week. The events of the past few months seem to have prompted a shift in perspective, underscoring the impact of leadership that clearly resonates with younger voters.